Gold and Silver Newsletter: First Fortnight of November 2026

HOW GOLD AND SILVER PRICES MOVED IN GLOBAL MARKETS

The calendar year 2026 saw a sharp fall in gold and silver prices in the global markets. Spot Gold touched an all-time high of $5405.00/oz in January 2026, and has closed on 06-Nov at $4070.41/oz. That is a fall of -24.7% from the peak. At the same time, Spot Silver touched a high of $115.08/oz in January 2026, and has closed on 06-Nov at $51.88/oz; a fall of -54.9% from the peak. Here are some key reasons for the sharp fall in gold and silver prices during calendar year 2026.

The crude oil price shock has raised inflation expectations across the globe. Central banks have raised interest rates, with Fed raising by 25 bps. It raises the opportunity cost of holding gold.

US dollar index (DXY) bounced from 96.216 in Feb-26 to 102.30 levels amid safe-haven buying. Being denominated in dollars, both gold and silver saw value depletion amidst a rising dollar.

The rout in AI stocks triggered a sharp fall in gold and silver in the latter part of 2026. The MTM losses on institutional portfolios, forced liquidation of gold and silver portfolios to fill the gap.

The war raised fears of weakness in industrial investments across EVs, solar panels, industrial electronics etc. In addition, data centres were also likely to witness slowing demand and now AI investments are more ROI-selective. This has specifically dented demand for silver.

QUARTERLY REVIEW OF GOLD DEMAND AND SUPPLY

The table below captures the key supply and demand components of gold on a quarterly basis for the last 5 quarters leading up to the September 2026 quarter.

Here are some key takeaways from the gold demand and supply data.

Global gold mining production has turned around back to above Q3-2025 levels. It remains to be seen how the mining supply pans out in Q4 amid rising supply chain constraints globally.

As a result, the overall supply of gold has bounced in Q3-2026 to 1,369 tonnes, after staying below the 1,300-tonne mark for two quarters in a row.

Jewellery demand continues to be well below the 2025 levels, largely due to the volatility in the price and the uncertainty factor caused by the ongoing US-Iran war in West Asia.

ETF investments have shown a revival in Q3, after falling sharply in Q1-2026 and dipping into negative in Q2-2026. ETF flows are back to the 2025 levels in third quarter of 2026.

Central bank buying has been one of the highest in the last 5 quarters, and this is normally a very strong trigger for gold prices, which is quite elastic to central bank demand. Among the central banks, China and Poland were the most aggressive in adding to gold reserves.

CENTRAL BANK BUYING – SWING FACTOR IN LAST 5 YEARS

Net purchases of gold by central banks has averaged over 900 tonnes in the last 4 years and even in 2026, it looks set to repeat. Net central bank buying has been robust at 675 tonnes in the first 3 quarters of 2026, so another year of above 900 tonnes looks to be on the cards. The popularity of gold began in 2022 after US blocked most of Russia’s dollar funds over the Ukraine war. This led to several major central banks diversifying reserves from dollars to gold, as a safety measure.

While Asia and Europe have been net buyers of gold in 2026; the US, Middle East and Africa have been neutral. While Poland dominated Europe gold buying, China accounted for half of Asian central banks gold buying. Two countries that were heavy net sellers in gold were Russia and Turkey. Both have been taking profits off gold at higher levels for their funding needs.

KEY GOLD AND SILVER TRIGGERS TO WATCH IN Q4-2026

There are several triggers for gold and silver prices in the fourth quarter.

Geopolitical risk will play a big part, especially in the Middle East. The Democrat victory has given a hint of an early end to the war, but neither the US nor Iran is relenting. As long as that uncertainty remains, there will still be safe-haven demand for gold.

The Fed held rates in October after hiking rates by 25 basis points in September. Kevin Warsh may have been defensive ahead of mid-term polls, but with rising inflation the choices are limited. Any rate hike will put pressure on the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Central bank buying of gold has been the theme of Q2 and Q3 and that will continue to be the swing factor in Q4 also. In 2026, central banks of Poland and China have bought more than 100 tonnes of gold. Other central Asian republics are likely to be aggressive in Q4-2026.

Silver may have a slightly bigger problem. Destocking in China and limited demand in India dents two of the biggest importers of silver. Also, silver thrifting technologies in solar panels has reduced industrial demand for silver by up to 30%. That is the pressure point.

Both gold and silver have formed a base near their long-term support levels. While spot gold has formed a base near $4,000/oz, spot silver has formed a base near to $50/oz. These levels will be crucial in deciding the direction of gold and silver prices in the fourth quarter.

Consensus estimates of brokers is for gold to touch $5,600/oz and silver to touch $70/oz by the end of 2027. While gold may recoup its Jan-26 highs, silver will still be well short. Although, the gold silver ratio is now favouring silver, gold seems to have to have the better fundamental dynamics. We could see a persistent phase of gold outperforming silver from here on!