Trump’s India Strategy – Fear of action is more effective than action

Trump is unfair to India, despite the best overtures made by the Modi government. What is the reason for the same? Clearly, Trump does not want India to emerge as another China. Just look at the sequence of events, and you cannot miss the story.

Using the US rod only for India

In a sense, Trump has been using the rod only for India. He forced India to shift to buying oil from the Middle East, and then made it impossible by starting a war in Iran. After India was left with no choice but to buy oil from Russia, he again wants to penalize India with stiff tariffs. However, he is willing to overlook the fact that Europe will continue to buy gas from Russia. Compared to India, Trump has even been soft on China, especially when it comes to imposition of tariffs. Clearly, Trump is aware that the US deficit with China is too big and also that Chinese supplies keep US inflation in check.

For Trump, India is his statement to the world

For Trump, India is in a different league. It is not as wealthy as Europe and hence it still depends on the US for bulk of its key export generating businesses. It also does not have the clout of China, which has emerged as the manufacturing hub for the world and dominates production. India is also not a Russia, which has been unpredictable to the point of being formidable. However, unlike a Thailand or Vietnam; India has the potential to amass substantial clout if allowed to grow rapidly for another 10-15 years. That is exactly what Trump wants to prevent. However, he is being more subtle this time. Instead of getting to harsh actions, he is intimidating with warnings and threats.

Why the intimidation strategy works better?

It is said that a snake that hisses is more formidable than a snake that bites. A snake that bites is typically beaten to death by a bunch of people. That is why snakes have survived for millions of years by threatening to bite, rather than actually biting. Trump saw that when the penal tariffs of 500% were imposed on India, they made a quick and ruthless pivot closer to China and Russia. That is not something that makes Trump comfortable and he had to soften immediately. Clearly, Trump does not want to repeat that misadventure. He realizes that India will, by default, prefer a cautious and peaceful solution, and will not embark on action, unless they are really cornered.

India must see through this Trump game

Prime Minister Modi is a shrewd politician and he obviously sees through the Trump game. However, it is important that India acts quickly and makes its stand clear. India has to underscore that its oil strategy cannot be based on the fluctuating moods of Donald Trump. National economies do not work that way. It does not need a genius to decipher that every move of Trump; from visa restrictions to tariffs to oil sanctions on Russia are all directed at India. Trump wants to slow India down and prevent another China emerging. It is time India stands up and calls this bluff. India has to make it clear to Trump that it cannot expect India to always raise a white flag. India will grow on its own terms!