Weekly Market Impact — for the week ended on 10th July 2026

Weekly Capsule (Jul 06 – Jul 10) and Impact Analysis

Geopolitical risk returns to the Middle East as Trump renews attacks on Iran

• These attacks were launched by Trump in retaliation to Iran allegedly firing missiles at tankers in the Straits of Hormuz
• Meanwhile, Trump has also called off the Iran peace deal and reimposed oil sanctions on Iran; reverting back to Square One

Fed minutes published by FOMC during the week give clear hawkish hints

• While the vote was mixed, most of the FOMC members were veering towards, at least, one rate hike of 25 bps in 2026
• While the FOMC has focused on data rather than on rate guidance, CME Fedwatch is only moderately hawkish

SBI MF prepares to tap the IPO market with its proposed ₹11,693 crore IPO

• The IPO of SBI MF, which will be open from 14-July to 16 July, has set IPO price band in the range of ₹545 to ₹574 per share
• SBI MF has big plans to leverage the massive customer data and has already done a pre-IPO placement of ₹1,655 crore

Crude oil prices tapered after crossing the psychological level of $80/bbl

• The sudden 10% surge in oil prices during the week came after the US and Iran resumed hostilities, putting peace on hold
• However, the OPEC decision to raise output for the fifth straight meeting is likely to keep the oil markets oversupplied

USDINR closed the week at ₹95.51/$, despite the promise of FCNR(B) flows

• Rising geopolitical tensions and a spike in oil prices have put pressure on the Indian rupee, amid rising global cost of funds
• During the week, the RBI did intervene to defend the rupee with dollar selling, but RBI options appear to be limited

RBI faces a challenge in unwinding its $107 billion, short dollar position

• While the massive dollar-short position helped to stabilize a weakening rupee, it has created a problem of a new kind
• Unwinding the dollar short position will not only harden the dollar, but also tighten rupee liquidity in the money markets

Mutual funds saw net redemptions of ₹52,949 crore for month of June 2026

• While debt funds saw net outflows of ₹1,09,054 crore, equity fund inflows were ₹28,973 crore, led by mid & small cap funds
• While Hybrid fund net inflows were led by Arbitrage Funds and MAAFs, gold and silver ETFs led a revival in passives

For June 2026, gross SIP inflows stood at ₹31,781 crore, the best in FY27 so far

• While SIP folios touched 10.52 crore, the total SIP AUM also gathered steam to ₹17.70 trillion, amid robust equity markets
• SIP stoppage ratio tapered to 91.23% for June 2026, but still substantially higher than the SIP stoppage in normal times

TCS reported -2.7% lower profits QOQ in Q1FY27 at ₹13,349 crore

• The fall in profits was on account of a ₹668 crore provision, after it lost a trade secret lawsuit against DXC Technology
• Revenues were up 2.2% sequentially, while OPMs fell by 130 bps to 24%. AI revenues scaled up to $2.7 billion annualized

Tata Motors PV lays out grand plan to capture 20% Indian car market by FY30

• The market share push will be driven by an outlay of ₹40,000 crore, 6 new model launches, and 20 model refreshers
• TMPV sees green electrical vehicles (EVs) contributing close to 30% of PV sales; with overall annual sales at 12 lakh units

Cult.Fit, the fitness and active lifestyle platform, files DRHP for proposed IPO

• Backed by Temasek, Cult.Fit will raise fresh funds of ₹950 crore plus an offer for sale (OFS) of 17.86 crore shares
• Superstar Hrithik Roshan is among the investors in Cult.Fit, and the company has close to 1 million paid members across

India and Indonesia sign $630 million defence deal, opening the East to India

• As part of the defence deal; India will supply BrahMos Super-Sonic Cruise Missiles and Astra Beyond Visual Range missiles
• With the Philippines and Vietnam already buying defence equipment from India, this expands India’s “Look East” policy

Credit card market share drops from 56% to 38% of unsecured loans: CIBIL

• While gold loans are growing in household debt, unsecured loans are moving to small-ticket personal loans and UPI loans
• The 18-percentage point fall in credit share can also be attributed to the exorbitant rates charged by credit cards

Rural consumption surges as FMCG market sees 6.8% value growth in Q1

• The 6.8% growth in June quarter was sharply higher than the 3.6% growth reported in the March 2026 quarter
• However, while urban FMCG value growth was just 2.3% in Q1FY27, the rural value growth outperformed at 9.0%.

Blinkit expected to maintain its quick commerce lead over Amazon & Flipkart

• While Amazon and Flipkart are aggressively expanding their quick commerce franchise, Blinkit still has the order lead
• Blinkit with 3.0 million orders per day, has a big lead over Flipkart Minutes at 0.7 million and Amazon Now at 0.2 million

Bank of Baroda to pay ₹5,700 crore as settlement to NMC Health, of UAE

• NMC Healthcare had gone bankrupt on the back of $4 billion of undisclosed debt, in which BOB was also involved
• NMC raises serious questions over governance, disclosure of risk, bank provisioning, and accountability of PSU banks

According to IEA, global oil demand may see first annual fall in last 6 years

• The full-year demand is likely to be about 1 million bpd lower in 2026; the first time since the COVID pandemic of 2020
• The main reason is substantial demand destruction due to the prolonged closure of the arterial Straits of Hormuz

SEBI eases intraday borrowing norms for MFs to help liquidity management

• MFs can use intraday borrowings to meet trade settlement, cash flow gaps, as well as forex and derivatives settlement
• Such borrowing costs have to be borne by the AMC, and any intraday borrowings must be repaid on the same day itself

Year 2026 could see nearly 35,000 tech roles being eliminated in India

• While this is largely to do with AI, it is also about fewer people needed for entry level tasks, leading to silent layoffs
• As ROI moves increasingly towards an ROI focus, the silent layoffs in tech are likely to be about 3 times higher in 2026

Morgan Stanley warns that the AI chip rally may be running out of steam

• This warning comes in the light of emerging signals that the pricing power of chip manufacturers may be weakening
• While AI is being re-engineered to include lower cost chips, there is also a greater shift towards proprietary manufacture

India approves 1.75 million tonne oil storage facility in Mangaluru

• The idea is to expand India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that the impact of a global fuel crisis can be better handled
• When completed, India’s strategic petroleum reserves will be sufficient to take are of 20-days of domestic consumption