Daily Market News Update — 05th-06th April 2026

Midnight News Update: 05-06 Apr 2026

Moody’s has cut India’s GDP target for FY27 to 6.0% on account of the lag effect of the Iran war. That is nearly 80 bps lower than its last estimate of 6.8%. Moody’s expects higher inflation to impact the purchasing power of households as fuel and LPG prices are moving up. It has pegged inflation at 4.8% for FY27, which will also impact the real GDP growth. Moody’s expects these geopolitical tensions to lead to subdued private consumption, softer industrial activity, and weaker momentum in gross capital formation. Higher input costs will be one more factor.

US jobs data saw some improvement in March with the unemployment rate tapering to 4.3%. However, the global uncertainty does not bode too well for the job situation in the US. The month of March saw non-farm payroll additions of 1,78,000 jobs in contrast to reduction of 1,33,000 jobs in February. The actual non-farm payroll additions were nearly thrice the consensus estimate of 60,000 job additions. It would not make much of a difference to interest rates because, with elevated inflation risks, the Fed narrative has shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes.

One of the best ways to understand a bear market is to compare the FPI flows and the BSE Dollar index. Since the market peak of October 2024, the BSE Dollex has fallen -23%. That is what FPIs are actually getting, which explains why FPIs are in a hurry to sell Indian markets. Since the peak of October 2024, the rupee has depreciated by 11.3% against the dollar, which explains why the Dollex has fallen much sharper than the Sensex. In fact, since October 2024, FPIs were net sellers in equities to the tune of $47 billion. Interestingly, DIIs infused thrice that amount.

For the truncated week ending April 03, 2026, a total of 6 out of the 10 most valuable stocks by market cap on the Nifty saw capital erosion of ₹64,735 crore. Bharti led the fall at ₹29,993 crore, followed by ICICI Bank at ₹12,846 crore, Bajaj Finance ₹11,169 crore, HDFC Bank ₹7,823 crore, Hindustan Unilever ₹2,350 crore, and SBI a marginal ₹555 crore. The week had gainers too. TCS added ₹22,360 crore, while Infosys added ₹12,375 crore. Other gainers were L&T at ₹6,575 crore, and Reliance at ₹3,519 crore. Rupee staged a smart recovery to ₹92.67/$ last week.

The crisis of trust at the Tata Trusts appears to be growing by the day. Venu Srinivasan resigned from the Bal Hirabai Charitable Trust on eligibility issues. According to Mehli Mistry, the 2 basic requirements to be a trustee are belonging to Zoroastrian faith and having permanent residence in Mumbai. Mistry had questioned the eligibility of Srinivasan and Vijay Singh to serve on the trust boards. Venu Srinivasan is the chairman of seven Tata Trusts at this point of time. It remains to be seen what happens to other board trustees who do not meet the two essential criteria.

The modified RBI rules pertaining to gold loans are likely to result in moderation of growth in gold loans as well as higher compliance costs for gold loan companies. However, most of the bigger lenders acknowledge this shift would bring greater transparency and discipline in gold loans. Also, there will be focus on creditworthiness of gold loan borrowers. Under the new norms, the LTV ratio must be maintained through the tenure of the loan, including the accrued interest. Lenders had asked RBI for a six-month moratorium, but RBI was not willing to accede to their demand.

According to recent data published by the RBI, bank CASA ratio has fallen to a 2-year low of 37.9% in the December 2025 quarter. This is sharply lower than the 40.1% CASA ratio recorded just two years back in the quarter ending December 2023. There has been a lot of cannibalizing happening from savings accounts to mutual funds in search of higher returns and more tax efficiency. Within the CASA basket, the share of savings accounts fell by 210 basis points to 28.9%. A fall in the CASA ratio has larger implications for banks because it implies higher cost of funds.

According to Goldman Sachs, AI-led demand is likely to drive a surge in semiconductor revenues. AI related capital and operational spending has a huge component of high-end semiconductors with specialized needs. Even as there are questions being raised about the financial results of AI implementation, most companies are heavily investing in AI to be future-ready. Hence, shipments from Taiwan continue to be robust. Goldman expects global semiconductor revenues to grow by 49% in 2026. The demand is growing for AI-linked hardware and infrastructure.