Markets at Crossroads: PMI, GDP & Fed Signals to Drive Next Move

Research Desk16 February 20263 min read

After a positive weekly close, Indian markets face a decisive week ahead. With Q3 earnings kicking off, PMI data, FY26 GDP estimates, US Fed commentary, and rupee volatility in focus, traders and investors must watch key technical levels closely. Here’s your complete weekly market roadmap.

Weekly Trigger (Feb 16 – Feb 20) and its Impact

Trigger for the Week	How will it impact?
Nifty -0.87% down, Sensex -1.14% lower, for the week ending 13-Feb	The fall in market was due to the Anthropic effect, which dragged IT index -8.23% down; should persist next week
Mid-cap index -0.11% lower; small cap index +0.56% up this week	The impact of the IT sell-off was less acute on smaller stocks as the impact was sharpest on large-cap IT
Key Q3FY26 corporate results to be announced during the week	PTC Industries, ABB India, KRBL, Anupal Rasayan, Creative Eye, Sejal Glass, CIE India, Patel Engineering
Focus will be on the Indian IT Index after it corrected -8.23% last week	The fall reflects concerns that AI platforms like Anthropic could reduce the need for IT outsourcing companies
WPI inflation for January 2026 will be announced in the coming week	The WPI inflation is expected to widen from 0.83% to 1.25% in line with the bounce in retail CPI inflation
Trade deficit data for January 2026 will also be put out this week	The merchandise trade deficit is expected to widen from $25.0 billion to $26.1 billion, reflecting US trade stress
RBI will announce the MPC minutes in the coming week on Friday	MPC minutes will give a more granular picture of the discussion on rates as well as views on liquidity front
FOMC minutes will be announced by the US Fed in the coming week	Since the Fed had held status quo on rates, markets will be keen to figure out the future trajectory of rates
US BEA will put out the Q4 GDP and PCE Inflation estimates for Jan-26	While GDP is expected to improve from 4.4% to 5.4%, the PCE inflation is likely to taper in line with the US CPI
Markets will focus on 3 data points of rupee, gold and silver next week	USDINR is expected to stay around ₹90.5/$ levels; and while recovery is expected in gold, silver will stay volatile
Only 1 mainboard IPO issue is slated to open in the coming week	Gaudium IVF & Women Health will open its fresh issue plus OFS on Friday, with IPO price yet to be announced
Nifty S/R at (25,400/25,586); Sensex S/R (82,414/82,959) for next week	Crucial levels for change in Short View will be 25,840 for Nifty and 83,804 for Sensex; with Longs only above that
Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week	Fed Speak, Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, PMI, Atlanta Fed GDP, Trade, Fed Balance Sheet, Spending
Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week	ECB Speak, IIP, PMI (EU); GDP, Trade, CPI (Japan); Jobs, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, PMI (UK); PBOC Prime Rate (China)

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Disclaimer: This content is for general information and education only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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