Daily Market News Update — 28th-29th May 2026

Midnight News Update: 28-29 May 2026

As per data put out by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), India managed to meet its (4.4% of GDP) fiscal deficit target, despite the vagaries of war. It also managed to meet 98% of its capex target for the year, supported by an infrastructure push and interest free capex loans to states. Total expenditure was marginally lower than the budget estimate of ₹49.6 trillion for FY26. The biggest additional expenditure in the year was fertilizer subsidy, which was necessitated by the surge in fertilizer prices globally. Fuel subsidy has been partly mitigated by price hikes.

Moody’s has warned that Indian banks were highly vulnerable to an oil shock, largely due to the overt dependence of India on imported crude. The prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has already imposed a huge inflation cost on India. According to Moody’s, Brent crude prices could average in the range of $90 to $110/bbl till the end of the third quarter of 2026. This is likely to impact the quality of bank loans, which have substantial exposure to oil importers. Moody’s also warned that NBFCs could see added pressure from retail loans, as purchasing power wanes.

Nomura continues to be bullish on Indian steel stocks; holding up to 15% upsides on four Indian steel stocks. These stocks include Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, and Lloyds Metals, where Nomura remains bullish. The brokerage expects a major shortage of coking coal, a key input for steel, globally, and these 4 companies were best positioned to handle the situation. Most of the steel stocks have already seen a sharp rally in the last one year in sync with commodity prices, and Nomura still sees about 15% upside in these steel 4 stocks. Margin pressures are possible.

Even as Bharti group has been trying to hike its stake in British Telecom from under 25% to just under 30%, there is major resistance expected from the UK government. According to reports, the UK government may block this move in order to maintain sovereignty over critical infrastructure. Ironically, the stock price of BT had rallied over 55% ever since Bharti had take a stake in BT in 2024. Typically, the UK can initiate a review under the National Security and Investment Act for any hike in stake in critical companies beyond 25%. Bharti group already has 2 board seats in BT.

One outcome of the oil crisis globally has been a major pivot towards electrical vehicles (EVs). The most eloquent example is available in Tata Motors reporting a 2.5X increase in EV bookings. Not surprisingly, Tata Motors is positioning the Tiago as a financially sound investment with assured cost recovery in 4-5 years. One of the big changes in the Tata offering has been a life time battery, which incidentally is the biggest cost item in an EV. A life time battery warranty by Tata Motors changes the entire economics of owning the EV, with the oil crisis offering an added boost.

According to a recent report by Systematix Research, rising raw material costs could trigger further price hikes in food and other personal care products. FMCG companies have been persistently raising prices of products in the last few months, and the ongoing oil crisis could only accentuate the need to hike prices further. While companies are absorbing part of the hike and adjusting packs for smoother sales, there is a point beyond which the FMCG companies have to pass on higher costs to the consumer. Input costs are up 8-10% in last 2 months, leaving little choice.

Central Bank of India (CBI) is all set to touch net profits of ₹5,000 crore in FY27. During the year, the bank plans to add 1,400 employees and open 150 new branches as part of its rollout. It is also fine-tuning its strategy to a more technology-driven and customer-centric approach. CBI had taken a hit of ₹623 crore in FY26 on account of deferred tax adjustments, but still reported net profits of ₹4,369 crore in the last year. Nearly 65% of the branches of Central Bank are located in rural and semi-urban areas, which is where most of the credit and consumer demand is coming from.

As the oil markets get more volatile, Reliance has made a conscious pivot towards gas and green chemicals as part of its strategy for FY27. Reliance expects that there could be a slump in demand for oil due to the surge in prices. However, that is likely to transform into greater demand for gas as well as a surge in demand for oil-linked chemicals. The tensions in the Middle East had limited the supply, but now it has reached a stage when it could finally translate into a slump in demand. They have underlined that FY27 could be a year when the gas pivot will be inevitable.