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Market Weekly Outlook: Nifty Falls, Crude Surge & FPI Sell-Off
Research Desk30 March 20262 min read
Indian markets decline amid FPI selling, rising crude, and weak rupee. Key triggers, global cues, and Nifty outlook for the coming week.
Weekly Trigger (Mar 30 – Apr 03) and Impact Analysis
| Trigger for the Week | How will it impact? |
|---|---|
| Nifty -1.28% down, Sensex -1.27% lower, for the week ending 27-Mar | Selling intensified during the week, and the signals are not too good with the US-Iran war intensifying |
| Mid-cap index -1.38% lower; small cap index -0.63% down this week | Amidst rising crude prices and falling rupee, smaller stocks are likely to come under more selling pressure |
| Key Dividend and Rights record dates falling in the coming week | TVS Motors, Aster DM Healthcare, IREDA, TVS Holdings, CRISIL (Dividend RD); Gujarat Cotex (Rights RD) |
| Key Bonus / Split record dates and AGM/EGM Dates in the next week | IRB Infra, Triton Valves, RB Denims, (Bonus & Split RD); Varun Beverages, Castrol, ABB, IGL, Cipla (AGM / EGM) |
| MOSPI to announce IIP growth for the month of February 2026 | While focus will be on Manufacturing IIP, the headline IIP is expected to fall in line with core sector growth |
| CGA will also announce the fiscal deficit update 11 months of FY26 | It will give the closest picture of whether the centre can defend the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26 |
| FPI selling in Indian equities at a huge $12.30 billion in March 2026 | FPIs were net sellers in equities on all days of March, and this is the biggest month of FPI selling in history |
| USDINR closes the week at all-time low of ₹94.78/$ on selling pressure | The US-Iran war continues to pressure the rupee and FPI selling could further exacerbate the fall in Indian Rupee |
| Brent Crude closes the week at $105.32/bbl after peace talks fail | With Iran setting tough conditions for a truce; the crisis in the oil market is likely to continue for much longer |
| With rising bond yields in the US, Fed speak assumes importance | Key speeches by Jerome Powell, John Williams, Michael Barr, and Michelle Bowman on rates and macro-outlook |
| No new IPOs opening next week, but 4 IPOs slated to list next week | Mainboard IPOs of CMPDI, Aeroplane Basmati, Powerica Ltd, and Sai Parenteral’s to list in the coming week |
| Nifty S/R at (22,687/23,069); Sensex S/R (73,110/74,481) for next week | Crucial levels for change in Short View will be 22,791 for Nifty and 75,787 for Sensex; with Longs only above that |
| Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week | Retail Inventories, JOLTS, API Crude Stocks, Retail Sales, PMI, Atlanta Fed GDP, Jobless Claims, Trade Deficit |
| Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week | CPI, PMI, Unemployment (EU); CPI, PMI, Capex (Japan); GDP, Current Account, HPI (UK); Composite PMI (China) |
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