What Moved India’s Markets This Week: Fed Signals, Crude Shock, EU Trade Pact & Corporate Reality Check

Research Desk31 January 20266 min read

From Fed rate signals and crude oil risks to India’s fiscal math, EU trade deal, IPO momentum, and mixed corporate earnings—here’s a crisp, no-noise breakdown of the key forces shaping Indian markets this week.

Weekly Capsule (Jan 26 – Jan 30) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement	Impact Analysis
India FY26 fiscal deficit as of December 2025 stood at 54.5% of full-year target	The month of December 2025 saw cumulative fiscal deficit falling by ₹1.21 lakhs due to front loading of advance tax flows That only indicates that the fiscal deficit could spike rapidly in the last 3 months of FY26, amid relatively tepid net tax flows
US Fed held its benchmark rates in the Jan-26 meeting at 3.25%-3.50% range	The status quo decision saw a favourable vote in ratio of 10:2; with only Miran and Waller (Trump nominees) dissenting However, with US Q3 GDP growth at 4.4%, Q4 growth likely at 5.4%, and 2.9% PCE inflation in Q3; rate cuts were ruled out
The finance minister tabled the 2025-26 Economic Survey in both Houses	The Survey broadly highlighted the achievements of the Indian economy under fairly trying global economic conditions However, the Economic Survey has identified some clear risks on the geopolitical front, which could disrupt the India story
It is not just gold and silver; but even Brent crude prices have risen sharply	Brent is now above $68/bbl, with WTI crude close to $64/bbl; and this has been largely driven by concerns over Iran Markets are apprehensive that any US aggression with respect to Iran could lead to the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz
CPI inflation will see a sharp reduction in food weightage to reduce volatility	The weightage of food in the CPI basket is likely to be reduced from 45.86% to 36.75% to reduce effect of food volatility This move is also in sync with the consumption reality, where food has reduced as a share of the overall household budget
The IIP rebounded to a 26-month high of 7.78% for December 2025	This comes on top of the November 2025 IIP being positively upgraded by 48 basis points to 7.16%, a positive indication While manufacturing did see robust growth in December 2025; mining and electricity also expanded at over 6%
The much talked-about FTA between India and the EU was signed on 27-Jan	The idea is to boost the current Indo-EU trade by $75 billion from the current total trade level of $137 billion India currently runs a $15 billion surplus with EU, and the FTA is likely to make most labour-intensive exports duty free
Bajaj Auto reported 19% spike in net profits to ₹2,503 crore for Q3FY26	The growth should have been better had it not been for a ₹62 crore one-time write-off due to the new Labour Code Quarterly revenues also grew 19% at ₹15,220 crore as the company saw EBITDA margins expand to 20.8% in Q3FY26
NSE gets approval for IPO; settlement will be a part of the overall deal	Now, NSE can start its IPO process and it is estimated that the actual IPO launch may take upward of 8 months from now The first step will be to engage with investment bankers for the IPO, which will entirely be an offer for sale (OFS)
Donald Trump has picked Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chief to replace Powell	Warsh is known to be a monetary moderate; and not too inclined to aggressive rate cuts; which should balance ideas Kevin Warsh is from the blue-blooded Morgan Stanley, so he should bring a balance of markets and regulation to the Fed
Indian PM Modi highlights $500 billion opportunity in the Indian energy sector	The idea here is to raise the refining capacity beyond 300 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and boost exploration India already has refining capacity of 260 MTPA and is among the top-5 exporters of refined products; reaching 150 nations
IPO-bound Phone Pe is scaling up its lending and insurance business	Insurance and lending are just 11.55% of its total business today, and this will reduce the pressure on payments business Insurance and lending has grown 3-fold in last 1 year, but it needs to diversify its 80% dependence on payments business
AI has its downsides, and it was evident when Microsoft fell 7% on results day	While analysts liked the growth in its Azure business, markets are worried about its aggressive AI and cloud spending budget Globally, markets are worried about how companies are going to practically justify their massive spends in the AI initiatives
HDFC Capital Advisors allies with CLS to set up rental housing platform in India	The idea is to develop, own and operate institutional grade rental housing to meet growing demand of professionals Curated Living Solutions (CLS) brings extensive experience in co-living, student accommodation and worker housing
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) reported 20.4% higher net profits at ₹1,580 crore	This was largely supported by a 24.0% growth in top line revenues in the quarter at ₹7,154 crore amidst rising orders While the new labour code hit was ₹1,662 crore; what is truly gratifying is the ₹73,015 crore order book position of BEL
Akasa Air expects 40% of its flights to fly international in next 4 years	Currently, Akasa Air serves 26 domestic destinations and just 6 international destinations; so, we are talking of a big growth In terms of domestic strategy, Akasa Air is likely to continue its focus on connecting the Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities in India
Vodafone Idea lines up ₹45,000 crore for 3-year expansion and growth plan	The capital infusion will target double-digit revenue growth and tripling the EBITDA from the current levels More importantly, Vodafone Idea has to regain its mojo of adding to its customer base; like Jio and Bharti Airtel
Vedanta demerger to take effect in April; listing of entities by May 2026	The demerger of entities has already been approved by NCLT (National Company Law Tribunal), despite centre pushback Vedanta will split, steel/ferrous metals, oil, aluminium, and power into 4 distinct verticals and list each one of them
Swiggy reported widening of net loss to ₹1,065 crore despite 21% GOV growth	Even the Consolidated Adjusted EBTIDA (before ESOP) reported an operating loss of ₹712 crore in the quarter Quick commerce may be boosting valuations and funding options, but it is surely draining cash flows of the company
Indian GCCs have been showing rapid growth as well as creating jobs	The quality of work done in Indian global capability centres (GCC) in India has gone up the value chain in recent years The GCCs currently contribute about $68 billion to the Gross Value Added (GVA); and account for 1.8% of India’s GDP
India’s nuclear submarine program is to have several spillover business benefits	Currently 51 large ships are under construction at Indian dockyards with an estimated value of ₹90,000 crore This program will benefit companies like MIDHANI, PTC Ind, CFF Fluid Controls, Quest Fluid Controls, GRSE, Kirloskar etc

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