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Iran War, Crude Spike & FPI Sell-Off: Weekly Market Impact
Research Desk29 March 20266 min read
Markets fell as Iran tensions pushed crude above $100, FPI selling surged, and inflation fears rose. Here’s the full weekly impact analysis.
Weekly Capsule (Mar 23 – Mar 27) and Impact Analysis
| News Announcement | Impact Analysis |
|---|---|
| Iran now threatens to shut down the Bab-Al-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea | The Bab-Al-Mandeb is the narrow strait between Aden and Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthis have been active If Iran makes the route riskier, then freight charges and risk premiums automatically go up, pushing up costs sharply |
| Brokerage houses are reworking India inflation and GDP growth estimates | With Brent likely to sustain at a new normal of $80-$100/bbl, India inflation is expected to spike to 4.5% in FY27 Higher inflation and delayed movement of key inputs and goods are likely to shave off 100-150 bps from GDP growth |
| Despite caution in the IPO markets, Manipal Health files for its mega IPO | According to DRHP filed with SEBI, the IPO will comprise of ₹8,000 crore fresh issue and OFS of 4.32 crore shares The company is also planning a pre-IPO placement of ₹1,600 crore, which will be reduced from the overall IPO size |
| Vedanta has challenged acceptance of Adani bid for JP Associates at NCLAT | Vedanta’s contention is; Adani’s bid at ₹14,535 crore was passed by COC, despite being below Vedanta’s ₹17,000 crore COC had gone by the higher upfront payment in the Adani bid, but Vedanta has challenged the logic at the Appellate Tribunal |
| Coal India gets aggressive in monetizing value of subsidiaries through IPOs | Coal India plans to divest 25% each in Mahanadi Coalfields and South Eastern Coalfields through the offer for sale (OFS) route This comes after Coal India has already divested its stake and listed Bharat Coking Coal in January and CMPDI in March 2026 |
| SBI Mutual Fund files preliminary papers with SEBI for its proposed IPO | The IPO, entirely an offer for sale (OFS), will entail the sale of 20.37 crore shares by SBI and Amundi, the JV partners The listing of SBI MF is expected by September 2026, which was expected after 6 AMCs have already listed on exchanges |
| Iran sets stringent conditions for peace talks with the US and an end to war | The first condition pertains to allowing Iran to monitor and collect a toll fee from ships passing through Straits of Hormuz The more controversial demand could be the dismantling of all US military facilities and bases in GCC / West Asia region |
| Nifty closes the truncated week -1.28% lower, but the real worry was volatility | The volatility is best reflected in the VIX almost doubling from 14.36 levels in late February to 26.80 by 27-March In the last one month, the Nifty has lost more than 10%, with the correction being much sharper in banks and auto stocks |
| Brent crude was trading at $104.20/bbl on Friday, with little respite from war | Brent did dip below $100/bbl after Trump hinted at peace talks, but bounced after Iran dismissed any such talks Government has reduced the excise duty on petrol and diesel sharply to help OMCs handle the oil price pressure better |
| USDINR continued to weaken and was trading at ₹94.677/$ in Friday trades | Since the start of the US-Iran war on 28-Feb, the Indian rupee has fallen by more than ₹3.50/$; a sharp fall in a month RBI intervention has been very selective as there is domestic hedging pressure and selling pressure in the NDF market |
| FPIs net sell equities of ₹25,630 crore in the truncated week ending 27-March | FPI selling has been triggered by risk-off selling in India as well as an escape from the rapidly falling Indian rupee For the month of March 2026 till date, FPIs net sold equities worth ₹1,13,810 crore or a massive $12.31 billion |
| Since the war started, India 10-year bond yields spiked from 6.66% to 6.94% | The spike in 10-year bond yields has been driven by a mix of higher inflation expectations and selling in the bond market Global brokerage houses are now estimating that the RBI may have to hike rates by up to 50 bps in FY27 to contain inflation |
| Gold was under pressure at $4,413/oz, while silver fell to $68.10/oz this week | The fall was not sharp in the week, but gold is down over 22% and silver over 45% from the peak levels of late January Apart from subdued gold demand, a rate hike is also expected to increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver |
| More than 65% of IPOs listed in FY26 are trading below their IPO prices | This problem becomes all the more acute considering that a record ₹1.75 trillion was raised via IPOs in FY26 Ironically, more than half the companies trading in the negative today; actually had a profitable listing on the bourses |
| Goldman Sachs warns of global food price spike due to Hormuz blockade | Straits of Hormuz remain a key gateway for movement of fertilizers and that is expected to spill over on food output Nitrogen fertilizer prices are up 40% in last 1 month due to slow fertilizer movement, and delays in LNG feedstock |
| CLSA expects oil and LNG prices to stay 15%-25% higher even after the war | They expect the post-war normal for crude oil to be between $80-$100/bbl due to freight and insurance risk re-pricing CLSA believes that even if the war is over, the supply chain constraints could actually last for a much longer period |
| FundsIndia is scaling its wealth business to touch ₹1,00,000 crore AUM by 2030 | That would be a four-fold scaling up of its current AUM; and it will be fully supported by its 100% owner, Westbridge Under the guidance of Westbridge, FundsIndia plans to replicate the universal banking model in wealth management |
| Tata Trusts have sought a 5-year road map from Tata Sons after TCS price fall | A major issue raised by Noel Tata has been the large value depletion in TCS, and the outlays in Tata Digital and Air India Of course, one more demand from Tata Trusts is to resolve the SP group tussle, without having to list Tata Sons |
| NeuEN Green Energy, the BPCL JV, gets a major green hydrogen order | The order is to supply 10,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) of green hydrogen to Numaligarh Refinery at ₹279 per KG NeuEN Green Energy is a joint venture between BPCL and Sembcorp; which is active in green hydrogen and ammonia |
| HDFC Bank hires external law firm to review exit of Atanu Chakraborty | That had become necessary after Chakraborty flagged some key ethical concerns in the functioning of HDFC Bank The stock of HDFC Bank has fallen by more than 12% since the resignation of Atanu Chakraborty as chairman of HDFC Bank |
| Arcelor Mittal Nippon India to build 8.2 MTPA steel plant in Andhra Pradesh | The project will entail an investment of ₹70,000 crore in Phase-1 and an investment of ₹1,35,000 crore overall The plant will be operational by 2029, and will mainly be supply steel to the Southern markets of India |
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