What Moved Markets This Week: Inflation, Fed Signals, Rupee Pressure and Big Policy Bets

Research Desk13 December 20256 min read

A crisp weekly capsule decoding the most important macro, market and policy developments shaping India’s financial landscape. From inflation data and Fed rate signals to rupee movement, fund flows, commodities and corporate actions—here’s what investors need to know.

Weekly Capsule (Dec 08 – Dec 12) and Impact Analysis

News Announcement	Impact Analysis
CPI inflation for November 2025 comes in higher at 0.71%, as food hardens	However, the good news is that the inflation is still under 1%, so the RBI reduced inflation estimate seems to be on target Food inflation stayed in the negative, but hardened to -3.91% in November 2025, compared to -5.02% in October
US Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% range	This marks the third rate cut for year 2025 and takes the total quantum of rate cuts since September 2024 to 175 bps However, the FOMC meeting also saw acute differences of opinion within the committee as hawks hardened their stand
CME Fedwatch now estimates just 2 more rate cuts in the next 2 years	The CME Fedwatch is pegging a 25-bps rate cut in 2025 and another 25-bps rate cut in 2026; to range of 3.00%-3.25% This indicates that the US Fed rates are getting closer to the neutral level, and further downsides may be limited
Fed quarterly projection of macros pegs higher GDP growth and lower inflation	The Fed has projected GDP growth for 2026 at 50 bps higher, while inflation is expected to be lower, but above 2% The interest rates are expected to reach equilibrium around 3.0% and sustain at the new normal for a longer period
Rupee weakened sharply to ₹90.69/$ during the week, on dollar buying	Even as the RBI intervened only cautiously in the markets, the demand for dollars from oil companies kept up the pressure The rupee was expected to benefit from the Fed rate cut, but that really did not have much impact on the Indian rupee
For November 2025, equity funds, hybrids and passives saw net inflows	However, debt funds saw net outflows of ₹25,693 crore, led by outflows from overnight funds and liquid funds Overall net inflows stood at ₹32,755 crore for November, with mutual fund AUM moving higher to ₹80.80 trillion overall
NFOs collected ₹3,126 crore across 24 schemes, with SIP flows ₹29,449 crore	SIP folios finally got back to above the 10-crore mark for the first time in the current fiscal year, after the folio clean-up SIP stoppage ratio stayed elevated at 75.6%, while the ratio of contributing SIP folios in November fell slightly to 94.1%
Union Cabinet clears the Insurance Amendment bill raising FDI cap to 100%	Allowing 100% FDI in insurance companies will not only interest global insurers but also make fund raising easier The insurance FDI cap is currently at 74%, and will be raised to 100%; but there is no mention of FDI in PSU banks
Government has finally opened up the nuclear sector to the private companies	The Nuclear Energy Bill is aimed at expanding India’s nuclear energy capabilities as well as how the sector is governed This will overturn the monopoly of the Department of Atomic Energy with a target of 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047
Silver prices in the Indian futures market finally crossed ₹2 lakhs per KG	In the aftermath of the rate cuts by the US Fed, both gold and silver prices rallied sharply in the global spot market too Silver has been the star performer, more than doubling in 2025, as it has safe-haven as well as industrial applications
Indian oil imports from Russia are up 4% to scale a five-month high level	Despite the US sanctions on India, total crude imports from Russia touched €2.6 billion in Nov-25, amid PSU buying Russia accounted for 35% of the crude import basket and the message is clear that India will not forsake energy security
SEBI considering proposal requiring senior officials to disclose their assets	An expert panel has called for such disclosures by CGMs, EDs, and WTMs; apart from the chairperson of SEBI The argument of the panel is that it would be a boost to transparency and disclosure; despite privacy concerns
India cloud data capacity touches 1,280 MW; to grow 5X by the year 2030	This expansion of data centres is largely being propelled by rapid adoption of AI / ML and rapid digitization across Some of the big investments into AI cloud capacity is coming from big guns like Google, AWS, Reliance Group and Adani
IndiGo moves Delhi High Court seeking refund of ₹900 crore customs duty	Engine parts sent abroad for repairs are subjected to double taxation and hence they have claimed tax refund on the same IndiGo’s argument is that re-import of aircraft components is a case of service imports and should not attract customs duty
Recently listed Orkla Ltd, which owns MTR Foods, looking for inorganic buys	Orkla Ltd, as part of its India growth strategy, is counting heavily on quick delivery platforms and ready-to-eat meals Orkla Ltd is looking for acquisitions of an average size of ₹100 crore to ₹200 crore as the base starting point for deals
JSW Energy has approved fund raising plans to the tune of ₹10,000 crore	The fund raising will be done through a combination of QIPs, private placements, as well as preferential issue of shares The company has big plans in the alternate energy space and also has a robust order book; calling for aggressive funding
Indian bond yields surged sharply by more than 12 bps in the last week	This surge in bond yields has led to several issuers like PFC and SIDBI putting of their bond issues due to higher cut-offs The spike in bond yields is surprising after the RBI rate cut, but could be indicative of pressure on the fiscal deficit in FY26
Meesho lists at 46% premium to IPO price, lives up to its subscription story	The stock listed at ₹162.50 against the IPO price of ₹111 per share, and even scaled a high of ₹179 per share Meesho opened with a market cap of over ₹76,000 crore and saw delivery volumes of over 55% on the day of listing
Swiggy QIP of ₹10,000 crore gets solid response of 4.5X from institutions	Despite the rising losses on quick commerce, the institutions continue to be very positive on quick commerce investments The placement was done at a price of ₹375 per share, which represents a 4% discount to the floor price set for the QIP
Mutual fund AUM expected to grow 4-fold to ₹315 trillion by year 2035	These projections were put out in a report jointly authored by Bain and Groww; projecting 2.5 crore new MF households Interestingly, the report expects most of the incremental growth in coming years from the Tier-2 and Tier3 cities
LIC had another good month in Nov-25 with solid growth in NBP and policies	As in previous months, the sharp growth in LIC NBP was led by group policies, but individual policies also held up After a 100% yoy growth in number of policies in October, LIC reported 70% yoy growth in policies in November 2025

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