Weekly Market Impact — for the week ending on 10th April 2026

Weekly Capsule (Apr 06 – Apr 10) and Impact Analysis

RBI Monetary Policy kept repo rates unchanged at 5.25% in April 2026

• The MPC decided by a unanimous vote to keep rates at 5.25% and also hold the stance of the policy at “Neutral.”
• This keeps the linked rates also static; the SDF rate at 5.00% and the MSF / Bank rate at 5.50%, pegged to repo rate

RBI MPC raises the inflation forecast for FY27, and cuts growth forecast

• Inflation forecast was raised by 40 bps to 4.6% while real GDP growth for FY27 was cut by 50 bps to 6.8%.
• For the first time, the RBI MPC also gave its core inflation projection for FY27 at 4.4%, hinting at supply chain constraints

The US and Iran enter into an uneasy ceasefire halting hostilities for 2 weeks

• During this period, both sides will freeze attacks while Iran will allow the oil tankers to pass through the Straits of Hormuz
• However, the truce appears to be volatile with Israel continuing to attack Lebanon, despite Iran’s objections

FPIs sell Indian equities worth $5.15 billion in first 6 sessions of April 2026

• Clearly, the FPIs are not done with their selling, even after offloading stocks worth $12.58 billion in March 2026
• In addition, FPIs also sold Indian debt paper worth $1.50 billion on expectations that repo rates may be hiked

SEBI introduces new rules on tagging of locked-in shares, even if not pledged

• This will cover a major gap in equity markets, as currently, IPO lock-in shares cannot be technically treated as pledged
• SEBI has now allowed depositories to tag such IPO lock-in shares as “Non-Transferrable”, so lock-in cannot be skirted

Private sector SKYMET has forecast deficit rainfall this year at 94% of LPA

• Normally, rainfall between 96% and 104% of long period average (LPA) is considered to be normal rainfall
• This time around, the El Nino effect is expected to impact the rains, which could impact Kharif output and food prices

Iran will collect a toll fee of $1/bbl on oil passing through Straits of Hormuz

• This may impact the price of oil marginally, but most oil traders will be satisfied if they can have safe passage through
• For a country like India, this would translate into a cost of $2 million per day, or nearly $750-800 million on an annual basis

Indian ecommerce players are moving up the value chain, to protect margins

• Ecommerce was meant for products of mass use at a low price, but that meant heavy discounts and persistent losses
• Now, ecommerce companies are foraying into premium products where the moat ensures more attractive margins

The crisis in West Asia could trigger a surge in demand for India data centres

• Post the war, the thinking is to keep the mission critical data close by, but shift the back-up data to more remote locations
• Indian data centre players like Yotta are already reporting a surge in data centre enquiries from global companies

USDINR carried forward its strength; closing this week at ₹92.678/$

• Last week, RBI measures like NOP restrictions, and a ban on speculation in the NDF market had hardened the Indian rupee
• While FPI flows continued to be negative, the sharp reduction in speculative open interest has certainly helped the rupee

Brent Crude closed at $95.84/bbl, on hopes of smooth transit via Hormuz

• Oil prices fell by more than 16% after the truce between the US and Iran; and has stayed below $100/bbl since then
• However, most oil traders expect Brent Crude to trade at a new-normal in the range of $85 to $95 per barrel

India benchmark bond yields fell below 7% mark after the RBI monetary policy

• The RBI monetary policy clearly hinted at status quo on rates till the war subsided, with no indications of a rate hike
• While that led to a tapering of bond yields, the FPI selling in Indian debt paper was over $1.50 billion in April 2026

Gold recovered further to $4,773/oz, and silver also recovered to $76.33/oz

• With the Fed not giving any rate hike indications, the lower opportunity cost came as a boost to gold and silver
• There is also value buying as gold is still 15% below the January peak, while silver is 37% lower than its January peak

Mutual funds witnessed net selling of ₹2,39,910 crore on debt fund selling

• Advance tax payouts led to debt fund redemptions worth ₹2.94 trillion, while equity and passive funds saw net inflows
• The sharp fall in the market indices led to the mutual fund AUM falling -10.1% from ₹82.03 trillion to ₹73.73 trillion

Mutual funds collected record SIPs of ₹32,087 crore in month of March 2026

• For the full fiscal year FY26, gross SIP inflows at ₹3,49,589 crore were 20.8% above FY25 and 75.5% above FY24
• However, SIP accounts contracted marginally in March 2026 due to the SIP stoppage ratio spiking to 101.06%

US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the March FOMC meet

• While the Fed had held status quo on rates, an increasing number of members are gravitating towards hawkishness
• While FOMC members are pegging one rate cut by end-2026, the CME Fedwatch sees a rate cut only after June 2027

US Consumer Inflation for March 2026 spiked by 90 basis points to 3.3% yoy

• Incidentally, the US CPI inflation had stayed at 2.4% in Jan-26 and Feb-26, but the US-Iran war has changed the equation
• The surge in inflation was led by energy basket at 10.9%, with gasoline at 21.2%; due to the trickle-down effect of the war

Amidst the Tata Trust battle, Shapoorji Pallonji has backed Tata Sons listing

• Incidentally, Noel Tata had asked Chandrasekaran for an assurance that Tata Sons would not be listed on the bourses
• The Shapoorji Pallonji group holds 18.3% in Tata Sons and a listing will allow them to effectively monetize their holdings

Godrej Properties reports 16% higher bookings in FY26 at ₹34,171 crore

• The total bookings came from sale of 17,515 units measuring around 27 million SFT, showing a volume growth of 5% yoy
• While 30.2% of bookings came from Mumbai, 25.8% came from Bengaluru and 21.7% from Delhi/NCR in value terms

For FY26, TCS reported AI revenues of $2.3 billion with total TCV at $12 billion

• For TCS, AI is increasingly becoming a core layer across its service offerings, rather than being a standalone segment
• TCS AI strategy focus is focused on building capabilities across the stack from infrastructure to enterprise applications

As per a Niti Aayog report, women’s credit exposure jumped 4.8X since 2017

• Women have a credit portfolio of ₹76 trillion and account for 26% of the total system credit, showing a rapid shift
• While commercial credit grew at 17% CAGR, credit to women business borrowers grew 31% CAGR between 2022 and 2025