Weekly Market Impact — for the week ending on 15th May 2026

Weekly Capsule (May 11 – May 15) and Impact Analysis

US Unemployment rate for April came in almost flat at the rate of 4.3%

• The non-farm payroll additions at 1,15,000 jobs was nearly 77% higher than the median street expectation of 65,000
• With the jobs situation comfortable, and rampant inflation in the US, the Fed may have strong reasons to hike rates

In a significant move, PM Modi called on Indians to adopt austerity measures

• Considering the forex situation, PM Modi called on people to cut down on gold buying and purchase of foreign goods
• Modi exhorted people to burn less fuel, use less cooking oil and asked farmers to rely more on natural soil nourishment

FMCG companies under pressure to raise prices amid spike in input costs

• Since many of the key inputs for FMCG companies are linked to crude oil and intermediates, the pressure is quite high
• While many of the FMCG companies have already resorted to price hikes, others are adjusting pack sizes accordingly

Mutual fund net inflows robust at ₹3.23 trillion, led by ₹2.47 trillion debt flows

• The resurgence in debt fund flows was normal after the huge redemptions in March for the year-end tax payments
• While debt fund flows were at the short end, equity fund flows were a mix of allocation and alpha hunting by investors

Gross SIP flows into mutual funds stood at a robust ₹31,115 crore in April 2026

• The figure is slightly lower than March, but that was more because March also had the lag effect of February flows
• The bigger concern for mutual funds would be that the SIP Stoppage Ratio was above 101% for second month in a row

Government hikes customs duty on gold and silver to curb imports

• Precious metals will now attract 10% basic customs duty plus 5% Agricultural Infrastructure Development Cess (AIDC)
• The spike in customs duty from 6% to 15% will help curb the import of gold, but it generally also encourages smuggling

India CPI inflation for April 2026 came in at 3.48%; against 3.9% expectations

• The increase in headline inflation from 3.40% to 3.48% was more due to food inflation rising to 4.2% in April 2026
• This may not be too suggestive as India has not raised the retail prices of petrol and diesel in sync with crude oil prices

The real story of India inflation was seen in the 8.3% WPI inflation number

• WPI inflation measures the producer inflation and is a direct reflection of the rising global costs of oil and shipping
• Nor surprisingly, the wholesale inflation of mineral oils, HSD, LNG, and petroleum products were in high double digits

US consumer inflation spiked to 3.8% in the month of April 2026

• While core inflation was sober at 2.8%, the pressure came from food prices; and largely from rising fuel prices
• With US inflation 180 bps above the 2% target, the markets are increasingly expecting to see rate hikes from the Fed

India share of global market cap falls below 3% for first time since 2022

• This fall in market cap share is due to the heavy FPI selling in India and the reallocation of funds to other emerging markets
• India’ share of global market cap had peaked at 4.71% in the month of September 2024; and is falling steadily since then

USDINR breached the ₹96/$ level on Friday, closing tad better at ₹95.88/$

• The rupee has appeared to be very vulnerable to the emerging geopolitical situation, especially in the Straits of Hormuz
• While FPI selling has also contributed, the real worry is that the US and Iran have not been able to arrive at any consensus

Brent Crude prices inch closer to $110/bbl on supply shortfall concerns

• The concerns are that even if the shipping routes normalize, it may take some time for production to get back to normal
• S&P has spoken about demand destruction of more than 5.2 million barrels per day, which could keep prices in check

FPIs were net sellers to the tune of $1.35 billion in the recent week

• In the first two weeks of April 2026, FPIs have net sold Indian equities worth $2.84 billion or approximately ₹27,048 crore
• For calendar year 2026 so far, FPIs have been net sellers in Indian equities worth $23.52 billion or ₹2,19,017 crore

CRISIL Research pegs India CPI inflation at 5.1% for the fiscal year FY27

• CRISIL has already cut the FY26 GDP growth forecast by 100 bps to 6.6% due to the impact of supply chain constraints
• For FY27, the real GDP growth could be sharply lower due to higher inflation, war effects, oil prices, and El Nino effect

Air India reports net loss of ₹28,400 crore for the full fiscal year FY26

• This extract was available in the annual report of Singapore International Airlines, which holds 25% stake in Air India
• This takes cumulative losses of Air India to ₹60,000 crore since Tatas took over; explaining why Noel Tata is really worried

OMCs hike prices of petrol and diesel by ₹3/litre to offset marketing losses

• OMCs will still have under-recoveries; and have indicated that if high crude prices persist, then more rate hikes were likely
• With the first hike in petrol and diesel in last 4 years, the impact on CPI inflation is likely to be up to 20 basis points

The board of Bharti Airtel approved a ₹28,200 crore share swap deal

• Under the swap deal, Mittal Family will sell its stake in Airtel Africa to Bharti Airtel, in exchange for a preferential allotment
• This will not only enhance the family stake in Bharti Airtel, but also help the company to consolidate its Africa business

Rapido raises $240 million in funding at overall valuation of $3 billion

• The funding round for the ride hailing app was led by Prosus with participation from Accel and Westbridge
• With persistent gains in market share, valuation of Rapido has nearly tripled in the last one year in tough market conditions

HCL Tech leads $150 million funding for Sarvam AI at $1.5 billion valuation

• The move is significant as it marks one of the largest funding rounds for an Indian artificial intelligence start-ups
• For HCL Tech, this is a natural hedge as the IT industry has been struggling against the likely disruptive potential of AI

Government clears proposal to list Mahanadi Coal fields, a CIL subsidiary

• Coal India will sell about 25% in Mahanadi Coalfields, and will be the third subsidiary monetization by Coal India
• The markets saw a good response to the IPOs of BCCL and CMPDI, and there are more such divestments in the pipeline

Indian exports surge to $43.5 billion in April, despite global trade constraints

• Even as Western markets were tepid, there was a surge in exports of goods to Singapore, Tanzania, Sri Lanka etc
• However, imports also grew 10% to $71.9 billion, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of $28.3 billion in April 2026