Weekly Market Impact — for the week ending on 03rd July 2026

Weekly Capsule (Jun 29 – Jul 03) and Impact Analysis

India IIP growth for May 2026 comes in at 5.1%, compared to 4.9% in April

• Among big drivers, electricity and gas supply grew by 9.9%, while manufacturing IIP grew by 5.5% on exports revival
• However, the mining IIP continued to contract for the fifth month in a row due to weather and regulatory constraints

India June oil imports touched record levels, largely driven by Russian oil

• For the month of June 2026, India imported a total of 4.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, according to KPLER data
• KPLER also indicated that tanker traffic pointed to India buying nearly 2.6 million bpd of oil from Russia in June; or over 52%

With RBI permitting leveraged FCNR(B), the big question is; loans at what rate?

• Currently, banks are giving loans for FCNR(B) deposits at 4.90%-5.25% for fixed, but goes up by 30 bps for floating rate
• With 6.5% to 7.0% on FCNR(B), this leaves limited room and the economics may change if RBI hikes rates any further

ICRA estimates total losses of airline companies in FY27 at ₹38,000 crore

• While crude prices have come down, the impact on ATF will be limited; and currency hedging and other costs are still high
• In addition, ICRA also expects clear contraction in consumer demand, especially in the highly lucrative Middle East sector

Credit growth continues to outpace deposit growth in June 2026

• For the first fortnight of June, the loan growth at 17.7%, was a good 570 basis points higher than deposit growth at 12.0%
• This big gap means; banks have to rely on short-term CDs to fill the gap, raising the spectre of asset liability mismatch

FY27 fiscal deficit as of end of May 2026 stood at 9.6% of full-year target

• This is an improvement after April alone had seen fiscal deficit touch 21.4% of the full-year GDP target for fiscal FY27
• This reduction in full-year fiscal deficit limit utilization was largely on account of the ₹2.87 trillion of RBI dividend payout

India shifting more of its crude oil procurement to the spot market

• This is a shift from the earlier practice of signing long-term supply contracts with major oil producing countries for crude
• With oil becoming an oversupplied commodity, importers can look for greater efficiency buying crude from the spot market

OYO files UDRHP with SEBI, hints at 75% IPO funds for debt repayment

• Out of the ₹6,650 crore to be raised by OYO Rooms in its upcoming IPO, it will use ₹4,988 crore for debt repayment
• The balance funds will be used towards general corporate purposes, which raises questions about the need for an IPO

Weather derivatives launched by NCDEX sees robust volumes of 20K lots

• Weather derivatives are a novel derivative product allowing the trader / hedger to protect against negative weather news
• However, the weather derivatives has also been criticised for offering speculative avenue without any underlying exposure

FPI net selling continues in equities, but turn aggressive buyers in debt in June

• FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of $5.16 billion, with BFSI and oil & gas facing the brunt of selling
• However, tax breaks on bonds resulted in net infusion by FPIs of $5.70 billion into Indian bonds as the FAR list was expanded

USDINR weakens to ₹95.28/$ levels during the week on macro pressure

• The rupee weakened by nearly ₹1 during the week as dollar index (DXY) showed signs of strengthening; crossing past 100
• The Indian rupee was also impacted by an overall weakening of all emerging market currencies across the Asian region

Sasidhar Jagdishan of HDFC Bank most likely to get a third term as CEO

• That move is almost inevitable after the law firms gave a clean chit that concerns raised by former chairman were unfounded
• However, former HDFC Bank chairman Atanu Chakraborty, has dismissed the legal report as being merely internal compliance

Government is most likely to announce a revamped gold monetization scheme

• The revamped GMS will leverage on certified jewellers as collection centres for jewellery for easier access and valuation
• The old GMS, in the first 10 years of its launch, could only collect about 38 tonnes of gold, a fraction of gold holdings

Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) okays ₹52,000 crore missile systems

• Procurement list includes UAVs, electronic warfare systems (EWS), anti-tank guided missiles, protection system for tanks
• This is likely to result in substantial order flows for major defence companies like HAL, BDL, Mazagon Docks, etc

India sets $1 trillion total export target for the financial year FY27

• This will comprise of $530 billion of merchandise exports and another $470 billion of services exports; growth of 17% yoy
• That is not too ambitious considering that India had achieved $863 billion in total exports in the financial year FY26

Life insurers higher surrender value than maturity benefits raises concerns

• In FY26, surrenders and withdrawals accounted for 38% of life insurance payouts, while maturity benefits were just 36.9%
• This creates asset liability management risk for insurance companies, which has been highlighted in the RBI FSR

RBI restores definition of indirect funds as funds received via group entities

• This is of relevance to Tata Sons as, even after NBFC license surrender, its associates will still be attracting deposits
• Tata Sons assets at ₹1.75 trillion are above the threshold, but the final decision on inclusion is still based on RBI discretion

GoDaddy challenges Delhi High Court order on curbing of fake websites

• The idea was to stop websites from cyber-squatting or trying to make money by impersonating well-established brands
• GoDaddy, which is into domain registrations, believes that taking away client confidentiality can curb genuine business

Hindustan Unilever to deepen outlays on AI and focus on localization drive

• Local supply chains will protect the company from input cost volatility, while AI offers a more intelligent approach
• One more strategy that HUL has been following in recent years is a subtle shift to premiumization to protect margins

TCS will kick off IT earnings season on 09-July, followed by TECHM and Infy

• The focus will be on the leaders after the massive IT sell-off amid concerns over tech spending, AI, and falling margins
• Most IT stocks are close to their 52-week highs; and the mid-cap IT stocks have done better than bellwether large caps

Adani forays into aluminium with $11.5 billion bet on the state of Odisha

• This will be a joint venture between AEL and International Resource Holdings (IRH) based out of Abu Dhabi
• The $11.5 billion investment will be made in phases and will include 4 MMTPA alumina plant 2 MMTPA aluminium smelter