UNDERSTANDING NEW IIP SERIES, BEFORE IIP NUMBERS
UNDERSTANDING NEW IIP SERIES, BEFORE IIP NUMBERS Before we get into the IIP numbers, it is essential to understand that there has been a change in the IIP series effective from April 2026. Starting April, the base year for IIP has been…
UNDERSTANDING NEW IIP SERIES, BEFORE IIP NUMBERS
Before we get into the IIP numbers, it is essential to understand that there has been a change in the IIP series effective from April 2026. Starting April, the base year for IIP has been shifted from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Based on this shift, all the retrospective numbers have also been updated as shown in the table below. However, the IIP shift is not just about the base year, but also about some qualitative changes.
To begin with, IIP calculation has been made more granular. The revised IIP methodology comprises of 1,042 products mapped to 463 groups; as compared to 839 products mapped to 407 groups. Also, weightage of mining and manufacturing have been reduced slightly. At the same time, the weight of Electricity has been increased, while a fourth group has been added for Water Supply and Sewerage Management. Now for IIP numbers!
IIP GROWTH FOR APRIL 2026 – A SHARP BOUNCE
The IIP numbers for previous months have been changed retrospectively in sync with the changed base year. As per the new IIP numbers, the one-year ago IIP saw a fall from 6.66% to 5.78%. The lower base effect partially explains the rise in IIP growth from 3.24% to 4.85%.
| Month | IIP Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| Apr-25 | 5.78% |
| May-25 | 4.72% |
| Jun-25 | 3.04% |
| Jul-25 | 5.00% |
| Aug-25 | 3.63% |
| Sep-25 | 5.53% |
| Oct-25 | 0.00% |
| Nov-25 | 6.47% |
| Dec-25 | 5.80% |
| Jan-26 | 4.43% |
| Feb-26 | 5.20% |
| Mar-26 | 3.24% |
| Apr-26 | 4.85% |
Data Source: MOSPI
What are the key takeaways from the April 2026 IIP data?
Mining and quarrying continues to be under pressure with -5.1% contraction in April 2026. This is on account of policy related issues for several minerals, although output of rare earth minerals continues to be robust. Pressure came from crude and ores.
Manufacturing showed a sharp revival at 6.2%, and with a weightage of over 76%, that continues to determine the direction of IIP overall. Apart from domestic demand-driven products, even some export products like textiles have shown positive traction.
On the electricity front; renewable energy and fossil fuels have shown robust growth in April, while gas supply came under pressure. However, that was more due to global gas supplies normalizing in April, as compared to the disruption in March 2026.
In terms of overall IIP, the growth for the last couple of years has been revised based on the changed base year. IIP continues to be led by manufacturing, but the good news is the 4.9% IIP growth despite the geopolitical risk in West Asia.
Let us now turn to the granular growth of the 4 sub-baskets in the IIP story.
APRIL 2026 AND FY27 IIP: DISSECTING IIP BASKET
The table the new series IIP growth for last 3 months, with the modified components.
| Product Basket | Weights | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | FY-27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel Minerals | 5.6470 | -1.9 | -2.7 | -5.7 | -5.7 |
| Metallic Minerals / Rare Earths | 1.9950 | 10.1 | 28.4 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Non-Metallic Minerals | 3.4110 | -9.6 | -17.1 | -14.2 | -14.2 |
| MINING & QUARRYING | 11.0530 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| Manufacture of food products | 5.6790 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Manufacture of beverages | 1.1130 | -6.3 | -6.3 | -7.1 | -7.1 |
| Manufacture of tobacco products | 0.7740 | -14.5 | -13.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Manufacture of textiles | 3.2750 | -20.7 | 10.7 | 15.6 | 15.6 |
| Manufacture of wearing apparel | 1.9700 | -11.0 | -9.4 | -7.0 | -7.0 |
| Manufacture of leather products | 0.6070 | 3.7 | -5.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Manufacture of wood products | 0.2390 | 9.3 | -10.4 | -12.5 | -12.5 |
| Manufacture of paper products | 1.3750 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| Printing and recorded media | 0.5060 | 0.9 | 4.0 | -3.4 | -3.4 |
| Coke and refined petroleum | 7.7210 | -0.8 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Chemicals and chemical products | 7.8130 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Pharmaceutical preparations | 5.8330 | 2.6 | -1.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Rubber and plastics products | 3.3840 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Non-metallic mineral products | 3.5190 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Manufacture of basic metals | 9.1980 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| Fabricated metal products | 2.4810 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| Computer, electronic products | 2.0850 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Manufacture of electrical equipment | 3.1750 | 17.1 | 13.5 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| Machinery and equipment | 5.0200 | 17.2 | 6.0 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| Motor vehicles, trailers | 6.4170 | 15.1 | 19.2 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Other transport equipment | 2.0890 | 19.4 | 14.3 | 18.9 | 18.9 |
| Manufacture of furniture | 0.2830 | 13.2 | 13.3 | -2.2 | -2.2 |
| Other manufacturing | 1.5090 | 6.9 | -6.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| MANUFACTURING BASKET | 76.0620 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Renewable Electricity | 1.6290 | 16.5 | 8.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Non-Renewable Electricity | 8.5420 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Electricity | 10.1710 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| Gas Supply | 0.6940 | -2.6 | 7.1 | -11.2 | -11.2 |
| ELECTRICITY AND GAS SUPPLY | 10.8650 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Water Supply | 1.0590 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Sewerage & Waste Management | 0.9610 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE | 2.0200 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| OVERALL IIP GROWTH FOR APR-26 | 100.0000 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Data Source: MOSPI (FY27 data for 1 month)
The cumulative growth for FY27 is purely theoretical as it only includes the data for one month. The above table captures the IIP basket with new weights and the modified product baskets under each of the 4 classifications. Manufacturing continues to be the big IIP driver.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR INVESTORS FROM IIP DATA
On the energy front, the positive thrust has come from renewable electricity, while gas supply continues to be under stress. Water supply, sewerage, and waster management have shown robust growth across components. In the mining space, the focus was on enhancing output of rare earths, while crude and ores remained under pressure.
Let us look at the positive momentum drivers in manufacturing, which has a weight of more than 76% in the IIP basket. The positive thrust came from products like electrical equipment, transport equipment, machinery, motor vehicles, fabricated metal products, paper and textiles. It was a mix of domestic and export driven production.
What about negative momentum drivers of IIP. There was pressure on wood products, beverages, wearing apparel, electronics, and furniture. The pressure is coming from select export products; which have been directly impacted by the US-Iran war.
The 3-month war has not had a major impact on IIP growth. The question is; what happens if this geopolitical uncertainty lingers for a longer period? That is a big question mark!
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