The public fallout between Zelensky and Trump was embarrassing. Even if we leave the vitriolic that both sides had indulged in and apparent lack of nuance shown by both parties, it is clear that the US wants out of the current war. The US is unwilling to fund the Ukraine war response to Russia and wants to be a neutral player; after having brokered peace in the region. But, large tracts of Ukraine are already in Russian control and neither side is willing to relent. For the US; it does not really interest them. 

One thing is clear; if the US refused to support the Ukrainian campaign, it is not likely the war can really continue. That is because; neither the Europeans, nor the richer Asian nations have any real interest in the region, other than giving a token support to the US. With the US out of the picture, nobody is really going to be too interested in the war. The EU may want to give an impression that it will continue the war even without the US, but that is not practically possible. The big question is what this means for the future of Ukraine and how it would impact the course of global relations? 

In politics, the public posturing that we see on media, is hardly the real story. For the US, the primary challenge is to get out of a prolonged and costly war. However, that has also had other costs to the US in terms of strategic role of the US in the global order. If the US negotiates the end of war and allows Russia to have the annexed chunks, it defeats the entire purpose. Ukrainians are going to be livid with the US and EU for allowing such a deal. If the US just walks out of the deal, then the EU is also going to pull out soon enough and then there is likely to be chaos. We have seen years of chaos in the Balkans and Eastern Europe and that is the last thing that EU wants. Chaos is not the answer! 

Going ahead, Zelensky will have a much smaller role in deciding the future of Ukraine. A lot will depend on the US, EU and other nations supporting sanctions on Russia. The last thing they want is their entire sanctions effort to come to nought. At the same time, they cannot allow a key partner in Eastern Europe to be consumed by the Russians. Seventy years back, the US and Europe have seen the price of Russian expansionism and they do not want to take chances. The future of Ukraine will not be about the need for peace, but about how the spoils of rare earths in Ukraine will be shared. That will hold the real key!