Last month, we had started our monthly analysis of Indian stocks on bounce and swing. Here we look at bounce and swing for the Nifty stocks in April 2025. We interpret bounce from 2 perspectives. The first is the 1-year returns and the second is the extent of bounce the stock has shown from yearly lows. This shows resilience. Under swing factor, we look at the 1-month returns and we also look at the proximity to the high price of the last one year. This shows the extent of short term swing factor in favour of the stock. The table below gives the top 5 Nifty stocks on each parameter for April 2025. 

How do the leaders compare on swing in April 2025, as compared to March. Back in March, the swing leaders were dominated by the CPSE names and the financial players. In April 2025, the CPSE names are absent. However, if you look at the two classifications of swing, then there are 3 financials in the top 5 on 1-month returns and 4 financials in terms of proximity to peaks. Interestingly, consumer stocks also find a leading place. 

What about the bounce factor on the right hand side? Here we have looked at the 1-year returns and also the bounce from lows as a measure of resilience. In terms of the top 5, there are several common factors like Bharti Airtel, Kotak Bank, HDC Life, and M&M. In the last couple of months, the theme has shifted in favour of the domestically oriented stories, and that is evident in bounce. India story is driving swing and bounce in Nifty. 

If one looks at the rankings of large caps on swing and bounce, there is one macro theme and one micro theme that emerges once again. The macro theme is that of an India oriented story. With the reciprocal tariffs and rising global uncertainty, markets are betting that India-specific stories would do much better. IT and healthcare are now conspicuous by their absence due to them being essentially global stories. Also, within the India story, there appears to be a big bet on BFSI as a proxy for the India story. 

If one were to expand the theme of BFSI a little more to cover the entire gamut of stocks, it appears to be an India consumption story. There were signals of this shift last month, but this month has reinforced that trend. You find the typical India stories like banking, insurance, NBFCs, telecom, digital, automobiles, consumer demand, rural demand etc. That is a sub-theme within the overall theme of investors gravitating away from globally vulnerable stocks towards stocks betting on domestic consumption.