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Weekly Update Market Trigger

“Market Triggers for the Week: What Will Drive Nifty & Sensex Next?”

A sharp, actionable outlook on what will move the markets this week — from Nifty levels and GDP impact to RBI’s rate decision, OPEC’s supply strategy, IPO flows, and global macro cues.

3 min read   |   01-Dec-2025   |   Last Updated: 01 Dec 2025
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Market Triggers: 01-05 Dec. 2025

       Trigger for the Week          How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty +0.52% up, Sensex +0.56% higher for the week ended 28-Nov 
  • Markets were cautious but on the positive side, the Nifty 50 has decisively closed above 26,000 resistance level 

 
  • Mid-cap index +1.27% higher; small cap index -0.10% down this week 
  • While alpha hunting continues in mid-caps selectively, the next week may still see caution in small caps 

 
  • Key corporate actions with record date in the coming week to 05-Dec 
  • Interiors & More (Bonus); Mini Diamonds, CAMS (Stock Split); Marsons, Engineers India Ltd (Dividends)  

 
  • Large cap stocks to be in focus next week after positive GDP data 
  • The 8.2% GDP growth in Q2FY26 is likely to be a macro positive and trigger institutional buying in large caps 

 
  • Market upsides in the coming week may be limited by fiscal concerns 
  • Fiscal deficit spiked to 52.6%, which could mean higher bond yields and negative impact on equity indices 

 
  • RBI to announce the last monetary policy of 2025 on 04-December 
  • The general market expectation is that RBI will cut rates by 25 bps to 5.25%, considering record low inflation 

 
  • IIP growth for October 2025 to be announced by MOSPI in 01-Dec 
  • While overall IIP is expected to be lower than 4.0% last month, the manufacturing IIP may scale above 5% 

 
  • Lower cash reserve ratio likely to positively impact market liquidity 
  • The 100 bps lower cash reserve ratio (CRR) of 3.0% will be effective from 04-Dec, and will be market positive 

 
  • The US PCE inflation for September 2025 is to be announced on 05-Dec 
  • The inflation is expected to be 10 bps higher at 2.8%, which may almost rule out rate cuts in December 

 
  • The big event next week will be the OPEC meet to decide on supplies 
  • Amid falling oil prices, the OPEC is likely to further raise supplies this week on hopes of a demand revival  

 
  • Three IPOs to open this week to raise ₹6,644 crore between them 
  • Between Meesho, Aequs, and Vidya Wires IPOs, Meesho will raise bulk of these funds at ₹5,421 crore 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (26,157/26,265); Sensex S/R (85,533/85,925) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Long View will be 26,030 for Nifty and 85,129 for Sensex; with Shorts only below that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • OPEC Meeting, Fed Speak, Atlanta Fed GDP, Redbook, JOLTS, API Crude Stocks, IIP, PMI, Jobless Claims  

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • PMI, CPI, ECB Speak (EU); Capital Spend, Household Spend (Japan); HPI, PMI (UK); Caixin PMI (China) 

 

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