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Weekly Update Maket Trigger

Stock Market Weekly Outlook: Nifty, Sensex Triggers, RBI, Rupee, US PCE & IPOs to Watch

Indian stock market weekly outlook for Nifty and Sensex: key triggers include RBI support to rupee, FPI flows, Japanese carry trade, US PCE inflation, GDP data, IPO activity, and crucial support-resistance levels. Read what may drive markets in the truncated holiday week ahead.

3 min read   |   22-Dec-2025   |   Last Updated: 24 Dec 2025
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Trigger (Dec 22 – Dec 26) and its Impact

        Trigger for the Week           How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty -0.31% down, Sensex -0.40% lower for the week ended 19-Dec 
  • Amid FPI selling and the weak rupee, the investor appetite for even the frontline stocks was missing 

 
  • Mid-cap index +0.04% flat; small cap index 0.00% flat this week 
  • The smaller stocks did not offer any direction this week and closed absolutely flat; displaying lack of interest 

 
  • Key corporate actions with record date in the coming week to 26-Dec 
  • GRM Overseas, Ram Ratna Wires (Bonus); Nuvama, Caspian (Stock Split); Canara Robeco, PPL (Dividends)  

 
  • Markets will look for signals of RBI support to rupee next week 
  • After weakening to ₹91.40/$ this week, late dollar selling by the RBI led to a strong close at ₹89.58/$ 

 
  • Japanese carry trade will be in focus this week after BOJ hiked rates 
  • Much of EM flows have been funded by low-cost Yen borrowings, but that can change after the rate hike 

 
  • DPIIT to announce India core sector growth for November on 22-Dec 
  • After falling to 0.00% in October due to the base effect, the core sector is expected to get back into positive zone 

 
  • RBI will also announce the loans, deposits, and FX reserves data 
  • While the C/D ratio will be critical for growth of banks, the forex reserves will be key amid RBI intervention 

 
  • US BEA to announce the PCE inflation for October on 22-Dec 
  • While September PCE inflation had scaled 2.8%, the big concern is the elevated levels of core inflation in the US 

 
  • US BEA will also announce the Q3 GDP estimates on 23-Dec 
  • GDP growth in Q2 had recovered to 3.8% after a sharp Q1 contraction; but Q3 GDP growth is expected at 3.2% 

 
  • The upcoming truncated week is likely to see lower market volumes 
  • The lower volumes are likely to be impacted by the year-end factor as well as the Christmas holidays this week 

 
  • One IPO to open next week, while 1 IPO slated to list on the exchanges 
  • While the ₹251 crore IPO of Gujarat Kidney & Super Specialty will open on Monday, KSH International will list 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (25,900/26,013); Sensex S/R (84,754/85,086) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Long View will be 25,794 for Nifty and 85,112 for Sensex; with Shorts only below that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • Personal Spends, Building Permits, IIP, Atlanta Fed GDP, Jobless Claims, Crude Oil stocks, Durable Goods Orders 

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • CFTC Positions (EU); Core CPI, BOJ Minutes (Japan); Current Account, GDP (UK); PBOC Loan Rate (China) 

 

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