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Impact Analysis |
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- RBI MPC cuts repo rates by 25 basis points in December policy to 5.25%
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- This reduces the linked SDF rate to 5.00% and the bank rate and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate to 5.50%
- While the rate cut decision was unanimous, the vote to hold the stance of the policy at “Neutral” was voted 5:1 in favour
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- RBI MPC ups GDP forecast by 50 bps and lowers inflation by 60 bps for FY26
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- With strong GDP data in H1FY26, the RBI MPC has raised the real GDP forecast for fiscal year FY26 from 6.8% to 7.3%
- In addition, amidst sustained negative food inflation, RBI has also cut FY26 CPI inflation target from 2.6% to 2.0%
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- IIP growth for October 2025 came in sharply lower at 0.40% on tariff stress
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- While mining contracted -1.8% in October 2025, electricity also contracted by 6.9% during the month on weak demand
- The big impact came from manufacturing slowing from above 4.0% to just 1.8% sequentially, as exports applied pressure
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- Indian rupee weakened beyond ₹90/$, despite late RBI support to the rupee
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- The rupee has been pressured by delayed Indo-US trade pact, hedging demand from oil companies, and NDF market selling
- It is interesting that despite the risk of the rupee plummeting, the RBI has gone ahead and cut rates by 25 bps in December
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- Spot gold rallies during the week, even as silver touches lifetime highs in spot
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- While the price of spot gold sustained above $4,250/oz, silver scaled as high as a new territory of $59/oz on dual demand
- Unlike gold, which is just a safe haven, silver has been gaining from safe haven demand as well as industrial demand
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- India rolls out the red carpet for Putin, as India balances its diplomatic choices
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- The US has been playing hardball, and India is unlikely to give up its oil buying from Russia, considering the discounts
- However, the fact remains that India runs a huge deficit with Russia, while it runs its biggest surplus with the US economy
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- In a mega media move, Netflix will buy out Warner Bros for $72 billion
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- Warner Bros currently has a market cap of $61 billion, so clearly Netflix is paying top dollars for Warner media property
- The Netflix-Warner Bros combination will be able to better tackle competition from Walt Disney and Paramount Pictures
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- India will buy 24 Seahawk helicopters worth $946 million from Lockheed
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- The Seahawk helicopters will substantially boost the strength of the Indian Navy and be a big leap for national security
- Seahawk can handle submarine warfare, anti-surface missions, search-and-seek rescue, and surveillance
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- S&P has raised Reliance Industries debt ratings, 2 notches above sovereign
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- This premium rating is indication that the long-term debt of RIL would remain safe and resilient even in a macro crises
- S&P remains very positive on Reliance Industries due to strong balance sheet and exposure to US dollar revenues
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- Indigo cancels 500 flights a day on new Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules
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- The new FDTL rules aims to reduce pilot fatigue and that is where Indigo is struggling to adjust its crew schedules
- Indigo dominates Indian aviation with its 65% market share, but they are also being accused of misusing their dominance
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- Electrical 4-wheeler registrations in India have jumped 2,700% since 2021
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- In the same period, the registration of electrical 2-wheelers have also jumped from 29,112 units to 11.42 lakh units
- With recent initiatives to expand the number of charging stations, the supply chain is also boosting EV demand in India
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- BAT PLC has sold 9% stake in ITC Hotels for a consideration of ₹3,820 crore
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- BAT PLC has been trying to reduce its debt burden, and this monetization offers it a good opportunity at this juncture
- This reduces their stake in ITC Hotels from 15.3% to 6.3%, as supply got absorbed by Nippon MF, Vanguard, and HCL Capital
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- Meesho gets subscribed 79.3 times at the close of its IPO on Friday 05-Dec
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- The IPO saw a sudden surge in QIB applications on the last day, as the QIB portion got subscribed nearly 120 times
- Meesho saw investor interest to the tune of ₹2.44 trillion, making it one of the most sought-after IPOs in recent times
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- Finfluencer, Avadhut Sathe, refutes SEBI allegations on trading advice
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- Despite the SEBI ban, Sathe has underlined that they only offered education courses based on market data
- However, SEBI is convinced that Sathe is using education as a front for offering investment advice without registration
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- Adani and Hindalco scout for copper mining assets in Peru and Latin America
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- What is disconcerting is that India may have to rely on imports for up to 93% of its copper concentrate requirements by 2047
- Peru is the third largest producer of copper in the world with key producers including Chile, China, and the United States
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- Private banks and PSU banks have seen a fall in the CASA ratio in Q2FY26
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- The overall CASA ratio at 36.38% in Q2FY26 is 115 bps lower than a year ago, and nearly 250 bps lower than 2 years back
- With the gap between CASA deposits and term deposits widening to 4%, there has been a big shift to term deposits
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- Government has ruled out any plans to increase FDI in PSU banks to 49%
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- While private banks permit FDI up to 74%, with 49% through automatic route, FDI in PSU banks is limited to just 20%
- Most PSU banks need capital to spruce up their capital adequacy, and FDI was a good way to privatize and fund
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- Star trader, Michael Burry warns of big implosion in NVIDIA and Palantir
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- He draws parallels with Nortel and Cisco in the late nineties and underlines the risk of excess capacity in any business
- According to Burry, capex commitments for AI are massive and it is tough to see such costs being justified economically
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- Manipal Hospitals likely to file for $1 billion IPO in January 2026
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- The IPO of Manipal Hospitals will be a combination of a fresh issue of shares as well as an offer for sale (OFS) by holders
- Manipal is likely to be valued at over $13 billion, making it the most valuable hospital chain; above Max and Apollo Hospitals
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- Four major IPOs are expected to open for subscription in the coming week
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- Corona Remedies, Wakefit Innovations, Park Medi World, and Nephrocare Health will raise ₹3,735 crore between them
- Another big AMC IPO of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund is also expected to open for subscription in the next 10 days
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- Wakefit Innovations raises ₹580 crore from anchors, out of ₹1,289 crore IPO
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- The Bengaluru based home-furnishings company raised 45% of issue size from a total of 33 anchor investors on 05-Dec
- Key anchors included HDFC MF, Axis MF, Nippon MF, Mirae MF, Amundi, Prudential HK, Steadview, HDFC Life etc
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