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Weekly Update Market Trigger

Markets at a Crossroads: Budget, RBI, Earnings & Global Triggers That Will Decide the Week Ahead

With Budget 2026, RBI policy, major Q3 earnings, currency volatility, and global macro data lined up, this week could redefine market direction across equities, commodities, and the rupee.

3 min read   |   02-Feb-2026   |   Last Updated: 02 Feb 2026
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Trigger ( Feb02-Feb06 ) and its Impact

         Trigger for the Week          How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty +1.09% up, Sensex +0.90% higher, for the week ending 30-Jan 
  • Amid macro risks, there was an abatement of VIX in the week and short covering; but action shifts to Budget 

 
  • Mid-cap index +2.25% higher; small cap index +3.22% up this week 
  • There were clear signs of alpha hunting in sectors like banking, oil, and metals, which looks set to continue 

 
  • Key Large Cap Q3FY26 results to be announced during the week 
  • Sun Pharma, GAIL, Hyundai India, Bajaj Finance, Varun Beverages, Adani Ports, Trent, Bharti Airtel, LIC, IOCL 

 
  • Key Mid Cap Q3FY26 results to be announced during the week 
  • Bosch, Sun TV, Shree Cements, Max Health, Nykaa, Tata Power, Cummins, Apollo Tyres, Emcure, Mankind, AWL 

 
  • Major corporate action record dates scheduled for coming week 
  • BPCL, LT Foods, Metro Brands, Cochin Shipyards, GRSE, IES, Max Financial, Crizac, Coromandel (Dividends RD) 

 
  • Rupee crosses ₹92/$ during the week, but closes stronger 
  • A lot will depend on whether the RBI will intervene in the coming week, as the rupee remains vulnerable 

 
  • A sharp crash comes in gold and silver on the last trading day 
  • Silver fell -30% and gold -13% on Friday, from Thursday highs, and could impact the rally structure next week 

 
  • Big Event next will be the Union Budget announcement on Sunday 
  • There are big announcements expected on fiscal deficit, debt, defence, capex, and on taxes and capital markets 

 
  • RBI will also present its monetary policy statement on 05-February 
  • While expectations are tepid, there is an outside chance of a 25-bps rate cut by RBI to boost nominal GDP growth 

 
  • US BLS will announce the overall unemployment data for Jan-2026 
  • The US unemployment rate is expected to be stable at around 4.4%, but the focus will be on payroll additions 

 
  • IPO mainboard will be quiet this week, but budget could be trigger 
  • While action will be limited to SME IPOs next week, positive cues from the Budget could trigger spate of IPOs 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (25,233/25,390); Sensex S/R (81,997/82,487) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Long View will be 25,045 for Nifty and 81,347 for Sensex; with Shorts only below that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • OPEC Meeting, Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Speak, Crude stocks, Initial Jobless Claims, Non-farm Payrolls, Jobs 

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • PMI, CPI, ECB Statement (EU); Household Spending, PMI (Japan); HPI, PMI, BOE Rate (UK); Caixin PMI (China) 

 

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