| News Announcement |
Impact Analysis |
| |
|
- India real GDP growth for Q2FY26 flattered on the upside at 8.2%
|
- The nominal growth rate was 8.7%, which means low inflation levels played a big role in boosting the real GDP growth rate
- With the GDP growing at 7.8% in the first quarter, it pegs the first half H1FY26 GDP growth at 8.0% annualized in real terms
|
- Primary GDP growth was tepid, but secondary growth looks lot better
|
- The primary GDP growth saw nominal agricultural growth fall to around 1.5% due to disruptions in Kharif output
- Real growth looked good due to negative agri inflation, while manufacturing gained smartly from better capacity utilization
|
- The services sector remained buoyant in terms of Q2-GDP growth at 9.2%
|
- This was led by a sharp revival in growth in finance, realty, as well as trade and hospitality related services in Q2FY26
- For nominal and real data, the GDP and GVA were almost at par, showing limited impact of indirect taxes and subsidies
|
- India fiscal update shows fiscal deficit at 52.6% of full year target as of Oct-25
|
- The absolute fiscal deficit for FY26 has gone up by 44% in the month of October, due to tepid revenue growth in the month
- That is more because, the advance tax flows were fully recognized in September, while refunds impacted net flows
|
- The progress of fiscal deficit raises big questions about the 4.4% of GDP target
|
- As the government appears to be spending heavily on capex to boost growth, the 4.4% target looks tough for FY26
- However, the government may choose to pump prime GDP growth, even if it means some spillage in fiscal deficit
|
- Kevin Hassett is tipped to be the next Fed chair, once Powell’s term is over
|
- Markets are worried as Hassett is a dove and very aggressive rate cuts would undermine the value of the dollar globally
- Above all, the markets are also wary that Hasset as Fed chair may curb the independence of the Fed, which is not good
|
- RBI to start releasing Balance of Payment data on monthly basis
|
- This would make the data more current and also useful from an analytical standpoint, although data flows may be an issue
- Currently, the release of BOP data has been compressed from 3 months to 2 months; but monthly data will add real value
|
- JP Morgan expects India’s CDMO market to double in size by year 2029
|
- The CDMO market is likely to cross $15 billion by 2029, with revenue CAGR growth at 17% and earnings growth at 20%
- While India has some big advantages in CDMO, the latest China+1 policy of global companies is also a key factor
|
- India plans major expansion of trade ties with Canada and UAE
|
- While Canada trade will be scaled up to $50 billion in next few years, UAE trade will be scaled to $100 billion by year 2029
- With trade restrictions imposed by the US, trade pundits are clear that India trade policy must now look beyond the US
|
- RBI governor hints at possible cut in interest rates in December MPC meet
|
- In a rather surprising development, RBI governor hinted that there was scope for a 25-bps rate cut in December MPC
- Views on rate cuts have been mixed with markets worried that any rate cut now, could weaken USDINR beyond ₹90/$
|
- US court orders Byju Raveendran to pay $1.16 billion for round tripping of funds
|
- While GLAS Trust has held this allegation of round tripping of nearly $533 million, Byju’s has consistently denied the same
- It remains to be seen what is the next course of action, but it surely looks like options for Byju Raveendran are narrowing
|
- Brent Crude got closer to $60/bbl in the week on negative news flows
|
- The recent fall in crude prices was driven by the Ukraine peace talks, but despite delays in talks, oil prices have not jumped
- While demand for oil is expected to be tepid, the bigger concern is on the supply front, especially from OPEC supplies
|
- Meesho finalizes terms of its proposed ₹5,421 crore IPO to open this week
|
- The IPO price has been set in the band of ₹105-₹111 per share at an indicative enterprise valuation of ₹50,096 crore
- The IPO will comprise of a fresh issue of ₹4,250 crore and ₹1,171 crore via offer for sale (OFS) by early shareholders
|
- In one of the biggest decisions, Airbus has recalled nearly 6,000 A-320 aircraft
|
- This recall has led to an avalanche of cancellations and changes to flying schedules across the globe, including India
- It recently became evident that solar flares disrupted data critical to flight control, leading to sharp drop in altitude
|
- Adani group will invest close to $5 billion in Google Data centres in India
|
- The next big billion-dollar investments from Adani and the Reliance Group are going into AI-driven data centres
- High intensity GW-data centres are the next big thing in India as it becomes a key hub for global big data processing
|
- CRISIL and AMFI are designing market making framework for sub-AAA bonds
|
- These are the bonds rated lower than AAA, and in these cases, the biggest problem is liquidity, which is why market making
- Market making in this case will entail inventory handling, spread management and ensuring regulatory safeguards
|
- PE/VC investments in October 2025 were up 9% MOM at $5.3 billion
|
- Financial services and fintech drove the surge with $2.9 billion of investments, followed by ecommerce at $715 million
- This was spread across 102 deals in the month, with fintech, ecommerce, and technology accounting for 77% of the flows
|
- Indian FMCG companies are seeing higher revenues, but losing customers
|
- Most of the FMCG companies have reported higher revenues only because product prices have gone up, and not demand
- For instance, the revenues for FMCG companies were up 6%, but the volume growth was just about 2% in Q2FY26
|
- Deendayal Port becomes fastest to scale up to 100 million tonnes in FY26
|
- Deendayal Port in Kandla, touched the milestone of 100MT in October, growing 6.78% on yoy basis as cargo handling surged
- In the last few years, Adani group ports have been steadily working towards cutting down on port turnaround times
|
- ICICI Prudential AMC to launch its IPO in the second week of December 2025
|
- It will entirely be by way of OFS, where 10% stake will be hived off at around $1.2 billion, with $12 billion valuation
- AMCs in India have enjoyed robust post-listing performance in recent years, with the latest listing being Canara Robeco AMC
|
- IMF projects a longer time line for India to scale up to $5 trillion GDP level
|
- That was supposed to happen in fiscal year 2028, but is now likely to happen only in fiscal 2029, almost a year later
- The two key reasons for the delay are the slowing of nominal rate of GDP growth and weakness in the Indian rupee
|
Announcement: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Donec et quam blandit odio sodales pharetra. 
Comments