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Weekly Update Market Trigger

What Will Drive Indian Markets in 2026? FPI Flows, RBI Moves, Fed Signals & IPO Momentum

As 2026 approaches, markets are balancing RBI’s rupee defense, uncertain FPI flows, volatile precious metals, a divided Fed, and a crowded IPO calendar. Here’s a sharp, data-led look at the macro signals and market levels that will shape India’s next big move.

3 min read   |   29-Dec-2025   |   Last Updated: 29 Dec 2025
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Trigger (Dec 29 – Jan 02) and its Impact

            Trigger for the Week           How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty +0.29% up, Sensex +0.13% higher for the week ended 26-Dec 
  • Broad markets are likely to continue to be tentative as traders and investors turn cautious for the year-end 

 
  • Mid-cap index +0.01% flat; small cap index +1.75% up this week 
  • While mid-caps continued to be flat, there is a surge of interest in small caps in mining, financials, and infra 

 
  • Key corporate actions with record date in the coming week to 02-Jan 
  • MCX India, SKM Egg Products, Ajmera Realty, A-1 Ltd, Caspian Corporate (Stock Split RD); A-1 Ltd (Bonus RD)  

 
  • Stock markets will await FPI data for December and fresh allocations 
  • The big area of interest for the markets will be whether Indian equities see fresh FPI allocations in year 2026 

 
  • USDINR closes on all days below the ₹90/$ mark amidst RBI intervention 
  • RBI has been supporting the rupee by selling dollars around the 90/$ levels, and sustenance of support is key 

 
  • Spot gold touches record $4,533/oz and silver at record $79.16/oz 
  • Both precious metals are at record highs, with the best yearly rallies since 1979, but rallies are getting volatile 

 
  • MOSPI to announce India IIP for November 2025 on Monday 
  • Markets are expecting a pick-up in manufacturing IIP in November, taking IIP above 2.7% recorded in October 

 
  • CGA to provide India fiscal deficit update as of November 2025 
  • The 8-month fiscal deficit will be a good approximation of full year; and test the 4.4% promise in the budget 

 
  • RBI to put out India’s foreign debt data, scaling $747 billion last time 
  • Rising foreign debt has been a concern for India and for the rating agencies, especially amidst falling rupee 

 
  • The minutes of the December Fed Meet will be published on 30-Dec 
  • With a divided Fed, this data will be crucial to understand if another rate cut is likely in January 2026 

 
  • Next week will have 1 IPO listing, but 2026 IPO timetable will be key 
  • IPO collections in 2025 at around ₹1.75 trillion, was at par with 2024; but there is a big queue for 2026 IPOs 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (25,986/26,121); Sensex S/R (84,860/85,301) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Long View will be 26,004 for Nifty and 84,980 for Sensex; with Shorts only below that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • Pending Home Sales, Crude Stocks, Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet, Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spends 

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • PMI, M3, Private Sector Loans (EU); BOJ Summary of Opinons (Japan); HPI, PMI (UK); Composite PMI (China) 

 

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