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Impact Analysis |
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- India CPI inflation came in sharply higher at 2.75% for January 2026
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- It must be noted that this was the first new-series inflation with the base year changed from 2012 to 2024
- New series also reduced the weight of food in the CPI basket by 911 basis points in line with household spending trend
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- Core inflation also tapered from around 4.15% to closer to 3.64% in Jan-26
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- While, the change in base year was one reason for lower core inflation, it was also an outcome of lower weight for gold
- It also meant that food inflation in Jan-26 at 2.13% was back into the positive after 7 months of being in the negative zone
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- FPIs have tuned net buyers to the tune of $2.3 billion in first 11 days of Feb-26
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- The FPI interest in the markets was driven by a progressive budget and the Indo-US trade deal framework being finalized
- This comes as a welcome relief after FPIs were net sellers of $3.95 billion in Jan-26, on top of $18.8 billion sold in 2025
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- Government creates special window to bring FDI up to 20% in case of LIC
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- LIC must hike its free float capital from current 3.5% to 10% by May 2027, as per SEBI stipulations; with LIC as a special case
- The idea here is that 20% FDI in LIC will allow big global hands to also participate in the equity stake sale by LIC of India
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- India asks oil refiners to source more crude from the US and Venezuela
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- While this is part of the Indo-US trade deal, the cost of crude will also matter, as well as the logistics of moving the crude
- Russia accounted for 35-40% of Indian crude basket, and both have invested in the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor
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- US unemployment rate comes in lower than expected at 4.3% from 4.4%
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- Apart from unemployment being 10 bps lower, non-farm payrolls increased by 1,30,000; twice better than estimated
- The stable jobs scenario; combined with solid GDP growth and high PCE inflation almost makes Fed rate cuts unnecessary
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- Gold ETF inflows at ₹24,040 crore, edged past entire active equity flows
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- This euphoria led to the passive funds contributing more than ₹39,900 crore in inflows in the month of January 2026
- With silver flows also strong at above ₹9,400 crore, one must not ignore risks of exposure to precious metals at high levels
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- Both IPOs for the week, struggled to get subscriptions across categories
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- Fractal Analytics was subscribed over 4 times, with some late support coming from the qualified institutional buyers (QIBs)
- Aye Finance got subscribed just 97% at close, with the QIB portion at 1.5X; but HNI/NII and retail was undersubscribed
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- There were some positive takeaways on the SIP flows for January 2026
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- Gross SIP flows at ₹31,002 crore in January 2026 was exactly at the same level as the SIP flows seen in December 2025
- However, the SIP stoppage ratio fell to 74.4%, while the ratio of contributing SIPs to total SIP folios was at a robust 96.4%
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- RBI plans to allow banks to give loans to REITs effective from July 2026
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- The total loan value will be capped at 49% of the asset value of the trust and will only be offered to listed REITs in India
- Currently, banks can lend to INVITs, but not to REITs, so this inclusion will remove that anomaly and help access funds
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- Airtel leads Jio in terms of subscriber additions in month of December 2025
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- While Bharti Airtel added 54.3 lakh net users for the month, Jio added only 29.6 lakh users; as per data put out by TRAI
- Jio still dominates the market with 48.9 crore subscribers, while Bharti Airtel is in second place at 46.3 crore users
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- Government to push OFS in PSUs, where public float is less than 25%
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- In addition, the government is also looking to list large unlisted names; and it has started off with subsidiaries of CIL
- Government ownership is below 60% in 30% of listed CPSEs, and centre needs to maintain 51% holding, so space is limited
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- December 2025 saw a record number of company registrations on the MCA
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- At 26,631 companies incorporated in December 2025, the number is nearly 112% higher on a yoy basis, which is huge
- As per MCA, there are around 30 lakh companies registered, of which only 66.5% of the companies are currently active
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- As VC funds dry up, data centre units look to the IPO market to raise funds
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- The trend started with SIFY Infinit Spaces, which has got SEBI approval for its ₹3,700 crore IPO, as a pure data centre play
- Other data centres in the IPO fray include Nxtra Data, a unit of Airtel, and Yotta Infrastructure, part of Hiranandani group
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- Coal India saw 15.8% fall in net profit in Q3FY26 at ₹7,157 crore on lower sales
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- Net sales for the quarter also fell by -4.8% to ₹30,818 crore as expenses for the quarter was also up by nearly 5% in Q3FY26
- Coal India, which mines 80% of India’s coal output, also saw a sharp fall in volumes compared to the year ago period
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- Passenger vehicle (PV) sales for January 2026 rose by 12.6% to 4,49,616 units
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- Earlier, the two-wheeler and the three-wheeler space had seen yoy growth of 30% and 26% over January 2025
- The GST reduction continues to have an impact, with the gains most visible in the entry level two-wheeler segments
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- KLA Corp, the US chip outfit, will set up a $400 million R&D centre in Chennai
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- The 12-acre campus in Chennai is envisioned as the global R&D and innovation hub for semiconductor design
- It will support advanced research in high performance computing, process control software, and AI-driven innovation
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- As Russian oil flows to India taper, China absorbs surplus oil from Russia
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- January 2026 Russian oil imports at 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) is the lowest import level achieved since 2022
- The average in 2025 was around 1.7 million bpd as Indian export refineries rethink crude sourcing amid tight sanctions
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- AI fears have wiped out ₹4.53 trillion from the market cap of IT companies
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- That translates into IT market cap losses of $50 billion in just about 10 days of trading in the month of February 2026
- Developments at Anthropic and others now threaten to largely wipe out the need for IT outsourcing altogether
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- US CPI inflation fell sharply by 30 bps from 2.7% to 2.4% in January 2026
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- Price rise was seen in airline fares, personal care products, recreation, medical care, and communication services
- Price decrease was seen for used cars & trucks, household furnishings & operations, and motor vehicle insurance
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- Life insurers grew (NBP) new business premiums 22% in Jan-26 on GST boost
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- This marked the third consecutive month of 20% plus growth in NBP for life insurers after GST on premiums was cut to zero
- LIC led the growth while the private sector also played alone, largely led by robust growth in SBI Life Insurance in Jan-26
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