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Weekly Update Market Trigger

Markets at Crossroads: PMI, GDP & Fed Signals to Drive Next Move

After a positive weekly close, Indian markets face a decisive week ahead. With Q3 earnings kicking off, PMI data, FY26 GDP estimates, US Fed commentary, and rupee volatility in focus, traders and investors must watch key technical levels closely. Here’s your complete weekly market roadmap.

3 min read   |   15-Feb-2026   |   Last Updated: 16 Feb 2026
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Trigger (Feb 16 – Feb 20) and its Impact

          Trigger for the Week             How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty -0.87% down, Sensex -1.14% lower, for the week ending 13-Feb 
  • The fall in market was due to the Anthropic effect, which dragged IT index -8.23% down; should persist next week 

 
  • Mid-cap index -0.11% lower; small cap index +0.56% up this week 
  • The impact of the IT sell-off was less acute on smaller stocks as the impact was sharpest on large-cap IT 

 
  • Key Q3FY26 corporate results to be announced during the week 
  • PTC Industries, ABB India, KRBL, Anupal Rasayan, Creative Eye, Sejal Glass, CIE India, Patel Engineering 

 
  • Focus will be on the Indian IT Index after it corrected -8.23% last week 
  • The fall reflects concerns that AI platforms like Anthropic could reduce the need for IT outsourcing companies 

 
  • WPI inflation for January 2026 will be announced in the coming week 
  • The WPI inflation is expected to widen from 0.83% to 1.25% in line with the bounce in retail CPI inflation 

 
  • Trade deficit data for January 2026 will also be put out this week 
  • The merchandise trade deficit is expected to widen from $25.0 billion to $26.1 billion, reflecting US trade stress 

 
  • RBI will announce the MPC minutes in the coming week on Friday 
  • MPC minutes will give a more granular picture of the discussion on rates as well as views on liquidity front 

 
  • FOMC minutes will be announced by the US Fed in the coming week 
  • Since the Fed had held status quo on rates, markets will be keen to figure out the future trajectory of rates 

 
  • US BEA will put out the Q4 GDP and PCE Inflation estimates for Jan-26 
  • While GDP is expected to improve from 4.4% to 5.4%, the PCE inflation is likely to taper in line with the US CPI 

 
  • Markets will focus on 3 data points of rupee, gold and silver next week 
  • USDINR is expected to stay around ₹90.5/$ levels; and while recovery is expected in gold, silver will stay volatile 

 
  • Only 1 mainboard IPO issue is slated to open in the coming week 
  • Gaudium IVF & Women Health will open its fresh issue plus OFS on Friday, with IPO price yet to be announced 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (25,400/25,586); Sensex S/R (82,414/82,959) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Short View will be 25,840 for Nifty and 83,804 for Sensex; with Longs only above that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • Fed Speak, Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, PMI, Atlanta Fed GDP, Trade, Fed Balance Sheet, Spending 

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • ECB Speak, IIP, PMI (EU); GDP, Trade, CPI (Japan); Jobs, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, PMI (UK); PBOC Prime Rate (China) 

 

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