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Impact Analysis |
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- First advance estimate (FAE) of FY26 real GDP growth came in at 7.4%
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- While agriculture faltered in FY26, compared to FY25; the big outperformance came from industry and services
- There was a 70-bps pick-up in capital formation at 7.8%, while government consumption demand also showed traction
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- Economists have expressed concerns over nominal GDP growth at 8.0%
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- While FY26 real GDP was 90 bps higher than FY25, nominal GDP was 180 bps lower; largely showing low inflation effect
- India will shift to 2022-23 base year from Feb-26, which will boost real GDP by 10 bps to 7.5%, keeping GFD at 4.4%
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- US unemployment rate for December 2025 came in 10 bps lower at 4.4%
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- It may be recollected that the November unemployment rate was revised lower by 10 bps from 4.6% to 4.5%
- With US real GDP growth at 4.3% and a fall in unemployment, the Fed may face a challenge explaining further rate cuts
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- After a 3-week hiatus, the IPO of Bharat Coking Coal, opened on 09-Jan-2026
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- The ₹1,171 crore IPO is entirely an offer for sale by Coal India, and the issue was subscribed 8.09 times on first day itself
- BCCL is into the mining and washing of coking coal, which is a key input that goes into manufacture of steel and power
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- FPIs took out $2.5 billion in equities in Dec-25; $18.8 billion in year 2025
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- The FPI selling in December was largely led by sectors like BFSI, FMCG, Services, Automobiles, and Capital Goods
- FPI selling in India has been triggered by valuation concerns, earnings slowdown, delays in trade deal, and a weak rupee
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- Mutual funds saw net outflows in Dec-25 to the extent of ₹66,591 crore
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- Outflows were led by debt funds at ₹1,32,410 crore, on account of quarter-end tax management with liquid funds
- While equity funds saw net inflows of ₹28,054 crore, the real big inflows were into passive funds at ₹26,723 crore
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- Gross SIP flows in December 2025 touched a record high of ₹31,002 crore
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- However, the month of December 2025 also saw a spike in the SIP stoppage ratio to 85.3%; the highest since May 2025
- SIP folios as of end December 2025 stood at 10.11 crore, while SIP AUM stood at an all-time high of ₹16,63,369 crore
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- Geopolitical risk was back as the US Navy captured Venezuelan President
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- Venezuela sits on one of the highest official oil and gas reserves in the world and that is what the US is targeting
- Now, Trump has also indicated his interest in Greenland, due to its mineral reserves and proximity to the arctic route
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- Trump threatens to impose 500% import tariffs on Indian goods
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- This could be huge as it will take the tariffs to ten times the current rate and make most exports to the US totally unviable
- It may be tough for Trump as, this time, he plans to pass the bill through the house, rather than via presidential order
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- Putting speculations to rest, centre has confirmed Budget will be on 01-Feb
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- The Economic Survey will be presented in the house on January 29, which is an analysis of economic performance
- The budget session will continue till 02-April, by which time, the government expects the Budget bill to be passed
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- Reliance Jio plans to sell 2.5% stake to the public in year 2026 in mega-IPO
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- Reliance Jio will raise $4 billion or ₹36,000 crore through the IPO, making it the biggest ever; bigger than Hyundai India
- It is already the largest telecom players in the Indian market with over 50 crore customers, with valuation at $180 billion
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- Indian holdings in US treasuries fell 21% in 2025, the first fall in the last 4 years
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- Despite attractive yields on US treasuries, India has preferred to enhance its gold holdings to reduce its dollar dependence
- India’s total holdings of US treasuries had stood at $241 billion last year, but fell sharply to $191 billion as of the current year
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- Gold ETF inflows in December 2025 crossed ₹11,640 crore on high demand
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- This takes the total AUM of gold ETFs in India to above ₹1.28 trillion, making it one of the fastest growing asset classes
- Inflows into gold ETFs tripled in December compared to November, even as AUM gained from price increase too
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- IPO of Amagi Labs, opening on 13-Jan sets price band in range of ₹343-₹361
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- The ₹1,789 crore IPO will be a combination of fresh issue and an offer for sale (OFS), valuing the company at ₹7,800 crore
- Amagi specializes in cloud video technology and the anchor allocation will happen on 12-Jan; one-day before IPO opening
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- FMCG volumes slated to rise by 5% in the first wo quarters of 2026
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- The demand turnaround is likely to be triggered by robust macroeconomic factors, and higher consumer demand
- FMCG sector has been hit by inflationary pressures and an urban slowdown in demand for the last 2 calendar years
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- Tata Power to invest ₹6,675 crore in 10 GW solar ingot, wafer plant in AP state
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- These products are critical inputs for solar cells, solar modules, and in other semiconductor applications
- The state government will allocate 200 acres of land to Tata Power in two tranches to facilitate this manufacturing boost
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- Titan is now eyeing leadership in lab grown diamonds (LGD) in jewellery
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- Currently, LGD accounts for just 2% of diamond studded jewellery market in India, which can grow amid low prices
- LGD products will be launched under a separate beYon brand and will not be mixed up with Tanishq, Mia, or Zoya brands
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- Proxy advisors, ISS and InGovern, urge shareholders to vote for MUFG deal
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- MUFG of Japan is planning to invest close to ₹39,618 crore in Shriram Finance for a 20% stake in the south-based financier
- While the preferential issue will be equity dilutive, ISS and InGovern are betting on the long-term strategic advantages
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- Upgrad calls off the acquisition of Unacademy over valuation differences
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- Upgrad is the education platform backed by Ronnie Screwvala while Unacademy is a specialized test prep company
- Upgrad was willing to pay $300 million for Unacademy; 90% lower than its peak valuations, leading to the deal falling out
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- Bajaj Group has completed the ₹21,390 crore stake buyout from Allianz AG
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- This deal raises the holding of the Bajaj group from 74% to 97% via Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Holdings, and Jamnalal Sons
- Allianz decided to walk out of the partnership after 24 years as Bajaj group was not willing to cede majority control to Allianz
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- RBI against Bain Capital – Manappuram deal on multiple lender control issue
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- RBI pointed out that Bain Capital already has controlling stake in another NBFC, Tyger Capital, making it dual exposure
- Manappuram, along with Muthoot and IIFL Finance are the NBFCs that dominate the Indian gold lending space
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