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Impact Analysis |
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- Trade deficit for December 2025 comes in marginally higher at $25 billion
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- Interestingly, exports went up at $38.50 billion, despite the pressure of US tariffs; with full year total likely at $850 billion
- While the Indo-US trade deal is imminent, India has been working to expand trade with China, EU, and Latin America
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- In a landmark judgement, Supreme Court ruled against Tiger Global
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- This pertains to the $1.6 billion stake sale by Tiger Global in Flipkart in 2018, when Wal-Mart had acquired Flipkart
- The deal had been structured via Mauritius, but SC has held it as a blatant move to evade tax and ruled against Tiger Global
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- Indian bond yields spiked by 4.50 bps during the week to 6.6498%
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- The spike in bond yields was triggered by a sharp fall in bond prices after passive funds sold off heavily in Indian bonds
- This move came after Bloomberg put off inclusion of Indian bonds into its Global Aggregate Index, leading to outflows
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- Key IT companies like TCS, Infosys, and HCL Tech reported fall in profits in Q3
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- However, this fall in profits was more of a one-time impact of provisions for the implementation of the new labour code
- All the IT companies reported higher sales, and stronger AI revenues; while Infy raised its CC sales guidance by 200 bps
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- WPI inflation for December 2025 turned around to +0.82% from -2.62%
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- Food and fuel inflation remained in the negative, but the manufacturing inflation bounced from 1.33% to 1.82%
- Higher manufacturing WPI is indicative of rising costs and could bring in pricing pressure across most industries in India
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- SEBI and NSE hint at approval for the NSE IPO before end of January 2026
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- The NSE IPO had been in limbo for nearly 10 years due to the latency privilege issue that has plagued the exchange
- Interestingly, despite NSE being the volume leader, it is BSE that has been listed for 9 years and a multi-bagger too!
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- Government has asked Q-Commerce companies to drop 10-minute promise
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- Quick commerce companies have argued that the promise is based on fine-tuned logistics and not risking lives of agents
- While the government is not averse to quick delivery as a business model, it wants the promise dropped entirely
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- CPI Inflation for December came in higher at 1.33%, on protein foods spike
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- This is sharply higher than 0.25% and 0.71% in last 2 months; but full year inflation stays subdued at just about 2.2%
- In the food basket, the uptick came from protein foods; while in the core basket, the uptick came from gold and silver
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- The IPO of Amagi Media Labs closed on 16-Jan with 30.22X subscription overall
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- HNI / NII led the way with 37.36X subscription with retail portion at 9.31X subscription at close of the third day
- After anchor investors absorbed 45% of the IPO, the QIB portion also saw robust oversubscription at 33.77 times
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- IPO of Shadowfax Technologies opens for subscription on January 20, 2026
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- The ₹1,907 crore IPO comprises of a ₹1,000 crore fresh issue of shares and offer for sale (OFS) of ₹907 crore
- The price band has been set in range of ₹118-₹124 with the minimum IPO investment lot size fixed at 600 shares
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- Reliance reports 10% growth in sales as digital, retail, and O2C drive growth
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- Net profits for the quarter grew by 1.6% to ₹22,290 crore with EBITDA at ₹50,932 crore and telecom ARPUs at ₹213.70
- O2C business gained from higher transportation fuel cracks, even as digital profits gained from better ARPUs in Q3FY26
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- CRISIL is of the view that Venezuelan oil would only make a margin difference
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- Venezuela has about 18% of proven global oil reserves and India hardly does any trade with Venezuela in importing oil
- Venezuelan supplies will take time to hit the markets and till then crude prices will be low; which is positive for India
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- Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) folios touched 20,779 in 3 months of launch
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- SIFs are in between mutual funds and PMS with threshold of ₹10 lakhs and moderate addition to risk and flexibility
- However, only a handful of SIFs have been launched till date, and a clearer folios picture will only emerge with more supply
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- With India cutting Russian oil supplies, Turkey has emerged at second spot
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- Indian oil companies were forced to cut Russian imports after the US sanctioned 2 major companies; Rosneft and Lukoil
- Apart from crude oil, Turkey also gets substantial amounts of coal and piped gas also from the Russian supply chain
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- Unacademy plans to exit owned offices and move fully to a franchisee model
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- Unacademy operates 26 owned offline centres and 35 centres by franchisees, and the former will be converted to franchises
- This will make the business asset light and boost ROI; and will focus more on content, technology stack, and brand building
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- Indian power sector to attract total investment of ₹4.50 trillion by 2032
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- This investment would be spread across electricity generation, grid, transmission, distribution, and storage for long-term
- The power generation investments, which form the bulk, will be spread across thermal, renewable and nuclear power
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- For FY27, India fiscal deficit to slip to 4.2% and debt/GDP to 55.1%
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- This improvement will get a leg up from the GDP base revision as it will be moved from 2011-12 to year 2022-23
- India is broadening its debt measurement narrative from just fiscal deficit to encompass the debt/GDP ratio too
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- Infosys raises revenue guidance for FY26 from 2-3% to 3.0%-3.5% on orders
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- Infosys confirmed that the latest quarter had seen a marked improved in the signing of large deals as also the execution
- For Q3FY26, the top line revenues of Infosys came in better than street estimates, despite stress on corporate IT budgets
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- India may raise foreign investment cap in defence to 74% in FY26-27 budget
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- However, the government is going to make this 74% stake conditional on actual transfer of technology to India
- In the last 25 years, FDI flows into India have been $765 billion, but FDI flows into defence was a paltry $24 million
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- SEBI proposes same day netting of funds for FPIs for speed and efficiency
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- Currently, FPIs have to fund their equity trades on a gross basis by arranging the funds before they get delivery of shares
- Netting of funds will allow the FPIs to use the sales proceeds from the trades on the same day to fund fresh purchases
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- $40 billion of shares across 92 recent IPOs will unlock by April 2026
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- The list includes big names like Lenskart, Meesho, Wakefit Innovation, PhysicsWallah; across 1-M, 3-M, and 6-M
- Bulk of the stocks freed up may be promoter stock and will not contribute to the supply of shares in the market
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