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Weekly Update Market Trigger

Markets at a Crossroads: Key Triggers That Could Shape the Week Ahead

Markets showed resilience despite weekly losses. With the rupee under pressure, RBI minutes due, key inflation data from India and the US, and fresh IPO action, the coming week could define short-term market direction.

3 min read   |   14-Dec-2025   |   Last Updated: 15 Dec 2025
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Written by: SERNET Research Team

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Table of Content

Weekly Trigger (Dec 15 – Dec 19) and its Impact

           Trigger for the Week           How will it impact? 
   
  • Nifty -0.53% down, Sensex -0.52% lower for the week ended 12-Dec 
  • After a weak opening, markets recovered in the last 2 days; that leaves markets with optimism for next week 

 
  • Mid-cap index -0.51% lower; small cap index -0.67% down this week 
  • While late buying was seen in large caps, the smaller stocks also held up this week, with limited losses 

 
  • Key corporate actions with record date in the coming week to 19-Dec 
  • Moneyboxx Finance (Bonus); Knowledge Marine, Nuvama Wealth (Stock Split); Can Fin Homes (Dividends)  

 
  • The Indian rupee will be in focus next week after closing at ₹90.6/$ 
  • The RBI rate cut accentuated the pressure on the rupee and at 90+, hedging pressure is also likely to build up 

 
  • DPIIT to announce the WPI inflation for November in the coming week 
  • In line with the CPI inflation, the WPI inflation is expected to also harden from -1.21% to around -0.60% 

 
  • DGFT to announce trade balance for November on goods and services 
  • Merchandise deficit had peaked at$41.68 billion last month and a lot will depend on gold imports in Nov-25 

 
  • RBI MPC minutes to be published by the RBI on Friday next week 
  • RBI MPC minutes will provide a trajectory of further rate cuts, if any, with implications for benchmark bond yields. 

 
  • BLS to put out US unemployment rate for November on Tuesday 
  • For now, the unemployment rate is likely to be static at around 4.4%, so impact on rate action may be limited 

 
  • US Nov CPI inflation and Oct PCE inflation to be put out this week 
  • While CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 3.0%, the PCE inflation is likely to inch higher from 2.8% 

 
  • US FOMC speak to offer critical cues to markets ahead of new year 
  • The week will see key Fed speeches by John Williams, Chris Waller, and Raphael Bostic for updated cues 

 
  • One IPO to close next week and just one IPO to open for subscription 
  • IPO of ICICI Pru AMC will be watched for IPO response; while KSH International’s ₹710 crore IPO will open 

 
  • Nifty S/R at (25,971/26,090); Sensex S/R (85,043/85,407) for next week 
  • Crucial levels for change in Long View will be 25,794 for Nifty and 84,483 for Sensex; with Shorts only below that 

 
  • Key data points from US markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • Building Permits, Core Retail Sales, Retail Inventories, API Crude Stocks, Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet 

 
  • Key data points from ROW markets to be keenly watched this week 
  • IIP, CPI, ECB Policy (EU); PMI, Trade Surplus (Japan); Jobs, CPI, BOE Inflation Letter (UK); IIP, FAI (China) 

 

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