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Impact Analysis |
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- CPI inflation for November 2025 comes in higher at 0.71%, as food hardens
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- However, the good news is that the inflation is still under 1%, so the RBI reduced inflation estimate seems to be on target
- Food inflation stayed in the negative, but hardened to -3.91% in November 2025, compared to -5.02% in October
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- US Federal Reserve cuts benchmark rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% range
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- This marks the third rate cut for year 2025 and takes the total quantum of rate cuts since September 2024 to 175 bps
- However, the FOMC meeting also saw acute differences of opinion within the committee as hawks hardened their stand
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- CME Fedwatch now estimates just 2 more rate cuts in the next 2 years
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- The CME Fedwatch is pegging a 25-bps rate cut in 2025 and another 25-bps rate cut in 2026; to range of 3.00%-3.25%
- This indicates that the US Fed rates are getting closer to the neutral level, and further downsides may be limited
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- Fed quarterly projection of macros pegs higher GDP growth and lower inflation
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- The Fed has projected GDP growth for 2026 at 50 bps higher, while inflation is expected to be lower, but above 2%
- The interest rates are expected to reach equilibrium around 3.0% and sustain at the new normal for a longer period
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- Rupee weakened sharply to ₹90.69/$ during the week, on dollar buying
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- Even as the RBI intervened only cautiously in the markets, the demand for dollars from oil companies kept up the pressure
- The rupee was expected to benefit from the Fed rate cut, but that really did not have much impact on the Indian rupee
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- For November 2025, equity funds, hybrids and passives saw net inflows
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- However, debt funds saw net outflows of ₹25,693 crore, led by outflows from overnight funds and liquid funds
- Overall net inflows stood at ₹32,755 crore for November, with mutual fund AUM moving higher to ₹80.80 trillion overall
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- NFOs collected ₹3,126 crore across 24 schemes, with SIP flows ₹29,449 crore
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- SIP folios finally got back to above the 10-crore mark for the first time in the current fiscal year, after the folio clean-up
- SIP stoppage ratio stayed elevated at 75.6%, while the ratio of contributing SIP folios in November fell slightly to 94.1%
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- Union Cabinet clears the Insurance Amendment bill raising FDI cap to 100%
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- Allowing 100% FDI in insurance companies will not only interest global insurers but also make fund raising easier
- The insurance FDI cap is currently at 74%, and will be raised to 100%; but there is no mention of FDI in PSU banks
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- Government has finally opened up the nuclear sector to the private companies
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- The Nuclear Energy Bill is aimed at expanding India’s nuclear energy capabilities as well as how the sector is governed
- This will overturn the monopoly of the Department of Atomic Energy with a target of 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047
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- Silver prices in the Indian futures market finally crossed ₹2 lakhs per KG
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- In the aftermath of the rate cuts by the US Fed, both gold and silver prices rallied sharply in the global spot market too
- Silver has been the star performer, more than doubling in 2025, as it has safe-haven as well as industrial applications
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- Indian oil imports from Russia are up 4% to scale a five-month high level
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- Despite the US sanctions on India, total crude imports from Russia touched €2.6 billion in Nov-25, amid PSU buying
- Russia accounted for 35% of the crude import basket and the message is clear that India will not forsake energy security
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- SEBI considering proposal requiring senior officials to disclose their assets
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- An expert panel has called for such disclosures by CGMs, EDs, and WTMs; apart from the chairperson of SEBI
- The argument of the panel is that it would be a boost to transparency and disclosure; despite privacy concerns
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- India cloud data capacity touches 1,280 MW; to grow 5X by the year 2030
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- This expansion of data centres is largely being propelled by rapid adoption of AI / ML and rapid digitization across
- Some of the big investments into AI cloud capacity is coming from big guns like Google, AWS, Reliance Group and Adani
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- IndiGo moves Delhi High Court seeking refund of ₹900 crore customs duty
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- Engine parts sent abroad for repairs are subjected to double taxation and hence they have claimed tax refund on the same
- IndiGo’s argument is that re-import of aircraft components is a case of service imports and should not attract customs duty
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- Recently listed Orkla Ltd, which owns MTR Foods, looking for inorganic buys
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- Orkla Ltd, as part of its India growth strategy, is counting heavily on quick delivery platforms and ready-to-eat meals
- Orkla Ltd is looking for acquisitions of an average size of ₹100 crore to ₹200 crore as the base starting point for deals
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- JSW Energy has approved fund raising plans to the tune of ₹10,000 crore
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- The fund raising will be done through a combination of QIPs, private placements, as well as preferential issue of shares
- The company has big plans in the alternate energy space and also has a robust order book; calling for aggressive funding
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- Indian bond yields surged sharply by more than 12 bps in the last week
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- This surge in bond yields has led to several issuers like PFC and SIDBI putting of their bond issues due to higher cut-offs
- The spike in bond yields is surprising after the RBI rate cut, but could be indicative of pressure on the fiscal deficit in FY26
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- Meesho lists at 46% premium to IPO price, lives up to its subscription story
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- The stock listed at ₹162.50 against the IPO price of ₹111 per share, and even scaled a high of ₹179 per share
- Meesho opened with a market cap of over ₹76,000 crore and saw delivery volumes of over 55% on the day of listing
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- Swiggy QIP of ₹10,000 crore gets solid response of 4.5X from institutions
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- Despite the rising losses on quick commerce, the institutions continue to be very positive on quick commerce investments
- The placement was done at a price of ₹375 per share, which represents a 4% discount to the floor price set for the QIP
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- Mutual fund AUM expected to grow 4-fold to ₹315 trillion by year 2035
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- These projections were put out in a report jointly authored by Bain and Groww; projecting 2.5 crore new MF households
- Interestingly, the report expects most of the incremental growth in coming years from the Tier-2 and Tier3 cities
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- LIC had another good month in Nov-25 with solid growth in NBP and policies
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- As in previous months, the sharp growth in LIC NBP was led by group policies, but individual policies also held up
- After a 100% yoy growth in number of policies in October, LIC reported 70% yoy growth in policies in November 2025
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