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The RBI announced its first monetary policy of FY25 on April 09, 2025. It must be said to the credit of the RBI governor that he has not just been audacious, but has also adopted a balanced approach.
On a lighter vein, the RBI governor did get the analogy with Sanjaya wrong. He admitted that he could not foresee the trajectory of rates, as he could not see the future like Sanjaya (Mahabharata). However, in reality, Sanjaya was given Divya Drishti (power to see beyond the visual realm), not a crystal ball to gaze into the future. But, he did convey a key message that the RBI would remain fully data driven in its approach to monetary policy. It would just take each policy as it came based on the macro data flows.
The April 2025 policy made some key policy changes. It cut repo rates by 25 bps and also changed the stance of the policy from Neutral to accommodative! This was brave for two reasons. Firstly, the global macro situation was still at an evolving stage and he could have played it safe and waited. Above all, a decision to change the stance of the policy from accommodative to neutral is like making an unequivocal statement that rate hike was not on the agenda any more. This stance shift means that, going ahead, the RBI would either hold the repo rates flat, or it would cut repo rates lower.
Generally, policy makers are happy with few changes in a single policy. The RBI MPC also voted to cut inflation estimates for FY26 by 20 bps to 4.0% and the GDP growth estimates for FY26 also by 20 bps to 6.5%. One can argue that the growth estimate may still be optimistic and inflation assumption was subject to a heat wave not triggering the El Nino effect. However, that is an academic argument and the RBI governor has said two key things. Firstly, the worst for consumer inflation was over and the second statement was that the growth pressures in FY26 were inevitable. This prepares the markets for the worst-case scenario. If you sum up these measures, it does come across as a bold policy.
In a sense, this policy statement has been a mix of macro intent and some real grassroot implementation. The key development policies announced with the monetary policy deal with various subjects ranging from gold loans to UPI to co-lending beyond priority sector. The second area where the RBI has shown an implementation focus is in liquidity. It is deliberately keeping the liquidity in a surplus situation so that transmission of rate cuts is smooth and seamless. That is essential if the rate cuts have to be really effective in the final analysis. The RBI governor has balanced, precept and practice rather well in April policy!
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